Weekly Outlook

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 21-25 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
12:30 pm

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 21-25 November 2016

HAFTAYA BAKIŞ Volatility in global financial markets stemming from appreciation in dollar as well as reluctance of the CBRT to take action against excessive depreciation in lira have led it the worst performing currency in EM universe. Lira depreciated 3.1% in the week to 3.387 according to CBRT fixing while CDS spreads have widened to 296.2. BIST 100 gained 0.6% and reached 75,639 on Friday but it lost 3.1% in USD terms. Bond yields have surged to 11.0% in the long end of the curve while 5y and 10y bond yields have risen to 11.13%...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 14-18 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
12:08 pm

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 14-18 November 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Following victory of Donald Trump Broad based expectation that Fed will hike rates in December weighs on all emerging markets. Revaluation of dollar index and US 10 year bond yields’ surge over 2.0 is pushing EM currencies lower against dollar and EM bond yields higher. Deteriorated risk perception has led 5Y CDS surge to 289.6 in Nov 11 from 271.8 a week ago. BIST100 ended the week by 1.2% gain (-2.6% in USD terms) at 75,174 while USD/TRY rose 3.95% since last Friday to 3.262. Yield curve in line with widening in CDS...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 7-11 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
11:57 am

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 7-11 November 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Despite S&P’s revision of Turkey’s sovereign debt rating outlook to “stable” from “negative”, operation against Cumhuriyet newspaper, imprisonment of HDP MPs, terrorist attack thereafter in southeastern city Diyarbakır, as well as ongoing tension due to rating downgrade expectation from Fitch have led to a sharp swing in Turkish markets during the week. Deteriorated risk perception has led 5Y CDS surge to 271.8 on Friday from 252.1 a week ago. BIST100 ended the week by 5.2% loss (6.7% in USD terms) at 74,267 while USD...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 31 October – 4 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
11:46 am

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 31 October – 4 November 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Another rating downgrade that could come from Fitch following Moody’s continues to strain markets as of last Friday. Heightened geopolitical risks, debates over constitutional changes to shift to executive presidential system as well as markets’ risk awareness in half day holiday before US GDP data on Friday have led markets to skew to the downside last week. Turkey 5y CDS which stood at 246.6 in October 21 picked up to 252.6 last Friday. BIST 100 closed the week at 78,333 on 0.6% weekly loss (1.5% loss in USD terms),...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 24-28 October 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
11:27 am

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 24-28 October 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK On top of rating downgrade expectation from Fitch, heightened geopolitical risks and debates over Constitutional changes have negatively affected risk perception about Turkish domestic assets. However, the CBRT’s decision not to move policy rates in this month’s Monetary Policy Council meeting alleviated the pressure over exchange rate and CDS spreads eased to 246.6 on Friday from 252.9 a week ago. BIST100 ended the week at 78,844 on a 1.7% gain while the gain has been 2.1% in USD terms. USD/TRY on a 0.4% weekly drop,...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 17-21 October 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
11:08 am

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 17-21 October 2016

2Y, 5Y and 10Y benchmark bond yields rising from 8.66%, 9.20% and 9.72% a week ago to 8.95%, 9.54% and 9.96% respectively.Domestic markets which felt a relief after Moody’s downgrade has experienced high volatility in the week to October 14, mainly due to increasing expectations of another downgrade from Fitch, operation preparations to Mosul and steep rise in dollar index. Turkey’s 5Y CDS spread picked up from 249.2 in October 7 to 252.9 in October 14, BIST 100 closed the week at 77,554 on a 0.5% loss (1.7% loss in USD terms) compared to previous week, USD/...

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