Weekly Outlook

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 5-9 December 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
01:00 pm

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 5-9 December 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Strong growth indicators for US economy and political uncertainties that created excessive volatiltiy in exchange rates, combined with rate but expectation from Fitch have led to a sell of in domestic markets. 5Y CDS premium which closed at 299 picked up to 306.3 in December 2 close. BIST 100 closed the week at 73,391 on a 2.1% loss (-3.2% in USD terms) USD/TRY ended the week with 1.9% depreciation in lira against USD, reaching  3.510. Yield curve has again shifted up and 5y and 10y benchmark bond yields which closed...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 28 November – 2 December 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
12:38 pm

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 28 November – 2 December 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Despite the CBRT’s strong move in its Monetary Policy Council meeting including policy rates hikes and FX required reserve cuts, European Parliament’s approval of non-binding suggestion to freeze Turkey’s EU accession process have led to an excessive volatility in financial markets and eased the gains from tightening in monetary policy. CDS spreads further widened from 296 in the previous week to 299 in the last Friday close. BIST 100 closed the week at 74,363 on 1.7% weekly loss (3.3% loss in USD terms), and USD/TRY...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 21-25 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
12:30 pm

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 21-25 November 2016

HAFTAYA BAKIŞ Volatility in global financial markets stemming from appreciation in dollar as well as reluctance of the CBRT to take action against excessive depreciation in lira have led it the worst performing currency in EM universe. Lira depreciated 3.1% in the week to 3.387 according to CBRT fixing while CDS spreads have widened to 296.2. BIST 100 gained 0.6% and reached 75,639 on Friday but it lost 3.1% in USD terms. Bond yields have surged to 11.0% in the long end of the curve while 5y and 10y bond yields have risen to 11.13%...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 14-18 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
12:08 pm

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 14-18 November 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Following victory of Donald Trump Broad based expectation that Fed will hike rates in December weighs on all emerging markets. Revaluation of dollar index and US 10 year bond yields’ surge over 2.0 is pushing EM currencies lower against dollar and EM bond yields higher. Deteriorated risk perception has led 5Y CDS surge to 289.6 in Nov 11 from 271.8 a week ago. BIST100 ended the week by 1.2% gain (-2.6% in USD terms) at 75,174 while USD/TRY rose 3.95% since last Friday to 3.262. Yield curve in line with widening in CDS...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 7-11 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
11:57 am

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 7-11 November 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Despite S&P’s revision of Turkey’s sovereign debt rating outlook to “stable” from “negative”, operation against Cumhuriyet newspaper, imprisonment of HDP MPs, terrorist attack thereafter in southeastern city Diyarbakır, as well as ongoing tension due to rating downgrade expectation from Fitch have led to a sharp swing in Turkish markets during the week. Deteriorated risk perception has led 5Y CDS surge to 271.8 on Friday from 252.1 a week ago. BIST100 ended the week by 5.2% loss (6.7% in USD terms) at 74,267 while USD...

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 31 October – 4 November 2016

03 Jul 18 (Tue)
11:46 am

WEEKLY OUTLOOK 31 October – 4 November 2016

WEEKLY OUTLOOK Another rating downgrade that could come from Fitch following Moody’s continues to strain markets as of last Friday. Heightened geopolitical risks, debates over constitutional changes to shift to executive presidential system as well as markets’ risk awareness in half day holiday before US GDP data on Friday have led markets to skew to the downside last week. Turkey 5y CDS which stood at 246.6 in October 21 picked up to 252.6 last Friday. BIST 100 closed the week at 78,333 on 0.6% weekly loss (1.5% loss in USD terms),...

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