Weekly Technical Analysis For November 22nd to 26th, 2021

Get Ready For FOMC Minutes And US GDP Numbers

EUR/USD: US Retail sales surged 1.7% last month, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Data for September was revised higher to show retail sales increasing 0.8% instead of 0.7% as previously reported. Sales have now risen for three straight months.

Strong U.S. retail sales data last week added fuel to the dollar recent rally, which started after a strong U.S. inflation print bolstered market bets that the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates around the middle of next year.

Moreover, US Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 268,000 for the week ended Nov. 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That was the lowest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States more than 20 months ago.

In the upcoming week, the minutes of the FOMC meeting due Wednesday is expected to provide investors with an insight into the Fed’s thinking on monetary policy.

In the last meeting, the Fed announced a $15 billion monthly cut to its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, but chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. central bank would be patient in deciding when to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate from near-zero levels

This week’s calendar also features U.S. data on GDP growth, Durable Good Orders, and PCE inflation. 

US GDP number will be published on Wednesday. Economists predict that Q3 GDP growth is at 2.1% annualized.

Core Durable Goods Orders, excluding transportation, are expected to come out at 0.5% in October.

The US will publish updates on consumer spending and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge on Wednesday, which will give fresh insight into the strength of the economy. 

The Core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.4% in October. Year on year, economists forecast a 4.1% rise.

The EURUSD pair moved down below the 1.1307 main resistance level. As long as the pair trades below 1.1307, on a four-hourly basis, we will face 1.1237 as the support level. On the upside, if the price rises above 1.1307, the next resistance level will be at 1.1365

Support: 1.1237 - 1.1165

Resistance: 1.1307 - 1.1365 - 1.1421

GBP/USD: We will closely watch the 1.3517 key resistance level in the GBPUSD pair. As long as the pair stays below 1.3517, on a daily basis, we will follow 1.3392 as a support level. Otherwise, if the price rises above 1.3517, the next resistance level will be at 1.3599.

Support : 1.3392 - 1.3313 - 1.3231

Resistance : 1.3517 - 1.3599 - 1.3688

EUR/JPY: The EURJPY pair closed last week above the 128.39 main support level. As long as the price stays above 128.39 on a four-hourly basis, we will follow the key resistance level at 129.33. On the downside, if the pair drops below 128.39, the next major support level will be at 127.52.

Support: 128.39 - 127.52 - 126.69

Resistance:  129.33 - 130.23 - 131.26

GOLD: The Gold Price pulled back below the 1854 key resistance level. As long as the price stays below 1854 on a four-hourly basis, we will see the support level at 1829. On the downside, if the price moves up above 1854, the next resistance level will be at 1873.

Support : 1829 - 1805 - 1785

Resistance : 1854 - 1873 - 1904

21 Nov 21 (Sun)

09:02 pm

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