Weekly Technical Analysis For November 15th to 19th, 2021

Focus On US Retail Sales Data This Week

EUR/USD: The U.S. dollar showed its best week in almost five months against major peers last week, amid bets for earlier Federal Reserve interest rate hikes after data this week showed the fastest U.S. inflation in three decades.

The U.S. consumer price index surged 6.2% on an annual basis, with gasoline leading a broad-based increase that added to signs that inflation could stay uncomfortably high well into 2022 amid snarled global supply chains.

Moreover, last week's U.S. data showed that the producer price index (PPI) grew 0.6% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year. The core PPI grew 0.4% month-on-month.

Looking ahead, the US Commerce Department will report October retail sales numbers on Tuesday. Economists predict that retail sales rose by 1.1% last month. On the other hand, Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to have risen by 0.8%. A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as positive for the greenback.

US Housing Starts will be announced Wednesday and it is a critical indicator of economic strength in the US. The market expects housing starts to rise to 1.580 mln from 1.555 mln.

US Building Permits as another key indicator of demand in the housing market measure the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. It is expected to come out at 1.630 mln in October.

If we look at the Eurozone, we will closely watch the EU Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. On a year-on-year basis, the CPI is expected to be at 4.1%.

On Friday, ECB President Lagarde will deliver opening remarks at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

The EURUSD pair showed a downward movement and closed last week above the 1.1421 main support level. However, as long as the pair stays above 1.1421, on a daily basis, we might see an upward reaction, we will follow 1.1507 as the resistance level. On the downside, if the price drops below 1.1421, the next support level will be at 1.1365

Support: 1.1421 - 1.1365 - 1.1307

Resistance: 1.1507 - 1.1589 - 1.1658

GBP/USD: We will closely watch the 1.3392 main support level in the GBPUSD pair. As long as the pair stays above 1.3392, on a four hourly basis, we will follow 1.3517 and 1.3599 resistance levels. Otherwise, if the price drops below 1.3392, the next resistance level will be at 1.3313.

Support: 1.3392 - 1.3313 - 1.3231

Resistance: 1.3517 - 1.3599 - 1.3688 

USD/CHF: Pay attention to the 0.9186 main support level in the USDCHF pair. As long as the pair trades above 0.9186 on a four-hourly basis, we will see a resistance level at 0.9322. On the other hand, If the pair drops below 0.9186, the next support level will be at 0.9064.

Support: 0.9186 - 0.9130 - 0.9064

Resistance: 0.9322 - 0.9437

GOLD: The Gold Price showed an upward movement above the 1854 key support level. As long as the price trades above 1854 on a four-hourly basis, we will see the resistance levels at 1873 and 1904. On the downside, if the price breaks down below 1854, the next support level will be at 1829

Support : 1854 - 1829 - 1805

Resistance : 1873 -1904 - 1932

14 Nov 21 (Sun)

09:58 pm


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