All Eyes On US Inflation Numbers This Week
In the last week, FOMC Minutes showed that many participants noted that their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support. With longer-term interest rates already very low, there did not appear to be a need for enhanced forward guidance at this juncture or much scope for forwarding guidance to put additional downward pressure on yields. Participants also noted that outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate of this type was not an unconditional commitment to a particular path.
Pay attention to the CPI and PPI inflation figures in the upcoming week. Consumer prices are expected to have risen by 0.2% in the last month and 1.4% over the prior year, according to estimations. Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is projected to rise to 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. The US PPI is predicted to rise to 0.2% from -0.2% on a year on year basis.
Moreover, US Retail Sales figures will be closely watched on Friday. Economists predict that retail sales stay at 0.6% in September. On the other hand, Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to have increased by 0.4%.
The EURUSD pair closed last week above the main support level of 1.1819. As long as the price stays above 1.1819, on a daily basis, the upward movement may gain more power and we will see 1.2064 as a resistance level. On the downside, if the price drops below 1.1819, we will follow the next support level at 1.1744.
Support : 1.1819 - 1.1744 - 1.1658
Resistance : 1.2046 - 1.2214 - 1.2391
The GBPUSD pair moved up above 1.3046 daily level. As long as the pair stays above 1.3046, on a daily basis, we will see the resistance levels at 1.3136 and 1.3231. On the downside, If the pair drops below 1.3046, we will see the next support level at 1.2947.
Support : 1.3046 - 1.2947 - 1.2838
Resistance: 1.3136 - 1.3231 - 1.3313
The USDJPY pair closed last week above the major level of 105.58. As long as the price stays above 105.58, on a daily basis, we will follow 105.84 and 106.15 as resistance levels again. On the other hand, if the price drops below 105.58, the next support level can be seen at 105.30
Support : 105.58 - 105.30 -105.05
Resistance : 105.84 - 106.15 - 106.41
Keep your eye on the 40.70 daily resistance level in the Crude Oil Price. If the price stays below 40.70, the rise may pause and the key support levels can be found at 39.27 and 37.78. On the upside, if the price beak out 40.70, the next daily resistance will be at 43.88.
Support: 39.27 - 37.78 - 36.30
Resistance: 40.70 - 43.88 - 47.63
11 Oct 20 (Sun)
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