Weekly Technical Analysis For September 28th to October 2nd, 2020

A Busy Week For Trading: Watch Out For US Nonfarm Payrolls And US GDP Data

EUR/USD:

The US Dollar rose versus the Euro last week. The greenback was supported by weakness in the euro and the pound as the second wave of Covid-19 infection threatens further lockdowns in the EU and U.K.

On the other hand, the US Commerce Department reported last week durable goods orders increased just 0.4% in August from the prior month, missing forecasts of 1.5%

In the upcoming week, keep your eye on the US Jobs Report on Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to ease 850K in September from 1.371K. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 8.2% from 8.4%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to come out 4.8%, year on year basis.

In addition to that, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on Gross Domestic Product, PCE Price Index, ISM Manufacturing PMI as well as Crude Oil Inventories

Watch out for the US GDP Growth on Wednesday. The US second-quarter gross domestic product is expected to come out at -31.7%, 

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE index, which calculates spending minus volatile food and energy costs, arrives along with personal spending and income numbers from the Commerce Department on Thursday. The August core PCE is expected to come out at 1.4%, year on year basis.

Moreover, focus on the Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone. On the year-on-year basis, the Eurozone CPI is expected to be -0.2%. A lower than expected reading will be negative for the single currency.

The EURUSD pair showed a downward movement last week. We will closely watch the daily support level of 1.1589. As long as the price stays above 1.1589, on a daily basis, the fall may be limited and we will see 1.1658 and 1.1744 as resistance levels again. On the downside, if the price drops below 1.1589, we will follow the next support level at 1.1507.

Support : 1.1589 - 1.1507 - 1.1421

Resistance :  1.1658 - 1.1744 - 1.1819

GBP/USD:

Keep your eye on the 1.2768 main resistance level on the GBPUSD pair. As long as the price stays below 1.2768, on a daily basis, we will follow 1.2671 as a support level. On the other hand, if the pair goes beyond 1.2768, the next resistance level is holding at 1.2838
 
Support : 1.2671 - 1.2572 - 1.2502

Resistance: 1.2768 - 1.2838 - 1.2947

USD/JPY:

Focus on the 105.58 daily resistance level in the USDJPY. If the pair stays below 105.58, on a daily basis, the rise may pause and we will follow 105.30 as a support level. Otherwise, if the price rises above 105.58, the next resistance level will be at 105.84
 
Support: 105.30 - 105.05 - 104.75

Resistance: 105.58 - 105.84 - 106.15

CRUDE OIL:

The Crude Oil Price showed a downward movement from the 40.70 daily resistance level yesterday. If the fall continues below 40.70, the key support levels can be found at 39.27 and 37.78. On the upside, if the price beak out 40.70, the next daily resistance will be at 43.88.

Support: 39.27 - 37.78 - 36.30

Resistance: 40.70 - 43.88 - 47.63

27 Sep 20 (Sun)

08:41 pm


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