Pay Attention To Fed Interest Rate Decision This Week
Last week, the European Central Bank left policy unchanged Thursday, as widely expected, but also marginally lifted its growth outlook for the year, buoyed by improving consumer demand.
In the ECB press conference, the tone was surprisingly optimistic. Lagarde focused the success of the pandemic emergency purchase program, and the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the GDP forecast for this year was revised up without corresponding downward revisions to growth longer out.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve will deliver its interest rate decision this week. There is no interest rate change expected from the Fed. Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting, awaiting his insights on the policy outlook.
FOMC Economic Projections will also be significant. The report includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member interest rate forecasts.
Besides the Rate Decision, this week's calendar also features U.S. data on Retail Sales, Building Permits and Housing Starts as well as Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Economists predict that retail sales eased to 1.0% from 1.2% last month. On the other hand, Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to have risen by 0.9%. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the greenback.
We will closely watch Eurogroup Meetings this week. Finance Ministers will discuss a range of financial issues, such as euro support mechanisms and government finances.
Moreover, we will focus on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index on Thursday. On the year-on-year basis, the Eurozone CPI is expected to be -0.2%
The EURUSD pair closed last week above the 1.1819 daily support level. If the pair stays above 1.1819 on a daily basis, we will see the resistance levels at 1.2046 and 1.2214. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.1819, the next support level will be at 1.1744.
Support : 1.1819 - 1.1744 - 1.1658
Resistance : 1.2046 - 1.2214 - 1.2391
The UK Unemployment Rate will be important for the Sterling on Tuesday. It is expected to rise to 4.1% in July from 3.9% A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative for the Sterling
Additionally, focus on the BoE Interest Rate Decision. No policy change is expected from the Bank of England. However, the BoE may flag extending its bond-buying to help an economy battered by the effects of the pandemic and Brexit.
The GBPUSD pair showed a download movement and dropped the daily support level of 1.2768. However, as long as the price stays above 1.2768 on a daily basis, we will see the resistance levels at 1.2838 and 1.2947. On the other hand, if the price breaks down below 1.2768, the next support level will be at 1.2671
Support: 1.2768 - 1.2671 - 1.2572
Resistance: 1.2838 - 1.2947 - 1.3046
The USDJPY pair closed last week below the 106.15 daily resistance level. As long as the pair stays below 106.15, on a daily basis, the Safe haven currency Yen may gain more value versus the US Dollar and the support levels can be seen at 105.84 and 105.58. On the other hand, if the pair goes beyond 106.15, we will watch the resistance levels at 106.41 and 106.72.
Support: 105.84 - 105.58 - 105.30
Resistance: 106.15 - 106.41 - 106.72
Keep your eye on the daily resistance level of 27.87 in the Silver Price. If the downward movement continues, we will see 24.39 as a support level. Otherwise, if the price rises above 27.87, the next resistance level can be seen at 31.35
Support: 24.39 - 21.26 - 19.55
Resistance: 27.87 - 31.35 - 34.48
13 Sep 20 (Sun)
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