Weekly Technical Analysis For June 15th to 19th, 2020

Pay Attention To BoE Interest Rate Decision And US Retail Sales This Week

EUR/USD: 

According to last week Fed quarterly projections, the U.S. economy will shrink 6.5% this year, and the unemployment rate will be 9.3% by the end of the year. We can use our tools to support the labor market and the economy, and we can use them until we fully recover, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday.

COVID-19 cases continue to increase and triggering renewed fears of a second wave of cases. Investors are getting worried about the possibility of renewed lockdowns to curb the spread.

In the upcoming week, US Retail Sales figures will be closely watched on Tuesday. Economists predict that retail sales rise to 8.0% in May from -16.4% last month. On the other hand, Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to have increased by 5.1%.

US Housing Starts will be announced Wednesday and it is a critical indicator of economic strength in the US. The market expects housing starts to rise to 1.100 mln from 0.891 mln.

US Building Permits as another key indicator of demand in the housing market measure the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. It is expected to come out at 1.248 mln in May.

Moreover, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is to testify on the central bank’s semiannual monetary policy report before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. 

In addition to that, watch out for the Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone. On the year-on-year basis, the Eurozone CPI is expected to remain stable at 0.1%. A lower than expected reading will be negative for the single currency.

The EURUSD pair found sellers from 1.1421 main resistance level and the dropped to 1.1237 support level. As long as the pair stays above 1.1237 on a four hourly basis, the downward movement may pause and we will see 1.1307 as a daily resistance level. In contrast, if the pair breaks down below 1.1237, the next support level will be at 1.1165
 
Support: 1.1237 - 1.1165 - 1.1114
 
Resistance: 1.1307 - 1.1365 - 1.1421

GBP/USD:  

Focus on the BoE Rate Decision. The BOE is expected to give itself another 150 billion pounds adding to the expansion announced in March and some analysts reckon it could even stretch to 200 billion pounds.

The UK CPI Inflation will also be an important release for the Sterling. CPI measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The UK CPI inflation is expected to ease to 0.5% from 0.8% year-on-year. 

Keep your eye on the daily resistance level of 1.2572 in the GBPUSD pair. As long as the price stays below 1.2572,  on a daily basis, we will follow 1.2502 and 1.2428 as support levels. On the other hand, if the pair goes beyond 1.2572, the next resistance level is holding at 1.2671.

Support: 1.2502 - 1.2428 - 1.2364

Resistance: 1.2572 - 1.2671 - 1.2768

USD/JPY:  

The USDJPY pair closed last week above the major level of 107.22. If the pair stays above 107.22 on a daily basis, we will see the resistance levels 107.52 and 107.82. On the other hand, if the pair drops below 107.22, the next support level will be placed at 106.98 again.
 
Support : 107.22 - 106.98 - 106.72
 
Resistance : 107.52 - 107.82 - 108.14

SILVER:

The Silver Price found sellers from 18.16 and then dropped below the 17.63 major level. If the downward movement continues below 17.63, we will see the support levels at 17.11. On the upside, if the price goes beyond 17.63, the next resistance level can be seen at 18.16 again.

Support: 17.11 - 16.80 - 16.52

Resistance: 17.63 - 18.16 - 18.61

14 Jun 20 (Sun)

08:39 pm


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