Weekly Technical Analysis For April 6th to 10th, 2020

Keep Your Eye On OPEC Meeting And FOMC Minutes 

EUR/USD:

US Non-Farm Payrolls plunged 701k in March, a far greater collapse than the expected, -100k. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%. The coronavirus pandemic caused massive disruptions to the global trade and labor market.

On the other hand, Euro was under selling pressure last week with the publication of the Eurozone’s final March PMIs. The data showed an even deeper than feared impact from the coronavirus, and many of the prints marked the worst on record.

In the upcoming week, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its policy meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank delivered an emergency half percentage-point cut last week. The Federal Reserve said they will inject $1.5 trillion in reserves into the financial system. 

The Fed’s decision to cut rates came two weeks ahead of a regularly scheduled policy meeting. The last time the Fed made a rate cut between scheduled meetings was in October 2008 at the height of the global financial crisis. 

Besides the FOMC Meeting Minutes,  this week's calendar also features U.S. data on JOLTs Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index as well as Michigan Consumer Sentiment

In the Eurozone, the minutes of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting due Thursday is expected to provide investors with an insight into the European central bank’s thinking on monetary policy.

In the last policy meeting, the European Central Bank surprisingly announced that it was not cutting rates. Instead, the ECB introduced measures to support bank lending and expanded its asset purchase program by 120 billion euros ($135.28 billion). 

Moreover, All eyes will be on this week's OPEC meeting. Trump said he expects Saudis/Russia to cut 10-15 mbpd. Crude Oil surged after Trump reports a Saudi-Russian deal. OPEC+ delegate also said to see a global output cut of 10 mil bpd as a realistic goal. Watch out, we might see huge price movement on Crude Oil.

The EURUSD pair showed a downward movement from 1.1137 and then closed last week just above the daily support level of 1.0806. As long as the price stays above 1.0806 on a daily basis, the fall may pause and we might see the upward reaction. At this point, we will see 1.0876 as a key resistance level. In contrast, if the pair breaks down below 1.0806, the bearish action may gain more momentum and we will see 1.0728.
 
Support: 1.0806 - 1.0728 - 1.0623

Resistance: 1.0876 - 1.0930 - 1.0965

GBP/USD:

The GBPUSD pair closed last week just below the key level of 1.2286. If the price stays below 1.2286 on a four hourly basis, the daily support level can be seen at 1.2205 again. On the other hand, if the pair rises above 1.2286, the next resistance level is holding at 1.2364.

Support: 1.2205 - 1.2110 - 1.2024

Resistance: 1.2286 - 1.2364 - 1.2428

USD/JPY:

Focus on the 108.52 daily resistance level in the USDJPY pair. If the price stays below 108.52 on a daily basis, we will support levels at 108.14 and 107.82. In contrast, If the pair goes above 108.52, we will see the next resistance level at 108.79.

Support : 108.14 - 107.82 - 107.52

Resistance: 108.52 - 108.79 - 109.09 

GOLD:

We will closely watch the 1612 main support level in the Precious Metal price. As long as the pair trades above 1612, on a four hourly basis, the resistance level can be found at 1626 again. On the downside, if the price breaks down below 1612, the next support level will be at 1606.

Support: 1612 - 1606 - 1590 

Resistance:  1626 - 1638 - 1650

05 Apr 20 (Sun)

05:53 pm


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