Watch Out For US Non-Farm Payrolls Data This Week
The US Dollar fell further last week as the likely passage of a $2.2 trillion U.S. package helped soothe worries of a global recession following the coronavirus outbreak and also looked set to increase the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet substantially.
Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said the U.S. may well already be in a recession. But he added the central bank still had plenty of ammo after it ramped up its bond-buying program last week.
EU nations showed more signs of ramping up fiscal stimulus to protect the Eurozone from the coronavirus pandemic. We continue to see coronavirus numbers peaking over the next few weeks, financial stress is coming down with the economic help from global fiscal policy.
The US Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1% pace in the fourth quarter of last year, in line with forecasts. However, the U.S. initial claims data showed the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits surged to a record 3.28 million last week.
In the upcoming week, get ready for the US Jobs Report. US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to drop -100K after rising 273K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.9% from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.2% which is lower than the previous month's number of 0.3%. An upbeat employment report will point to an improving US economy and support the greenback.
Moreover, the economic calendar will bring an update on the health of the U.S. economy, with reports on Pending Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing as well as Factory Orders
In the Eurozone, we will focus on CPI Inflation and German Unemployment Rate are both due Tuesday, and if the CPI measure of inflation falls to 0.8% year/year from 1.2%.
The EURUSD pair jumped up above 1.0650 and extended gains towards the 1.1165 daily resistance level. In order for the upward movement to gain more power, it needs to break out and stay above 1.1165 on a daily basis. Should this occur, we will see 1.1237 as the next resistance level. Otherwise, we will follow the support levels at 1.1114 and 1.1052 again.
Support : 1.1114 - 1.1052 - 1.0007
Resistance : 1.1165 - 1.1237 - 1.1307
The pound rose versus the US Dollar after the Bank of England (BoE) holds its interest rates at an all-time low of 0.1%.
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has become the first world leader to say he has tested positive for coronavirus.
Looking ahead, the UK GDP will be published on Tuesday. The GDP is expected to come out at 0.0% q-o-q growth, lower than the previous number. This would lead to an annual realization of 1.1%. A better than expected realization may support the Sterling.
The major resistance level of 1.2502 is critical for the GBPUSD pair. In order for the rise to continue, it needs to stay above 1.2502 on four hourly basis. In this case, we will see face 1.2572 as the next resistance level. Otherwise, we will watch support levels at 1.2428 and 1.2364.
Support : 1.2428 - 1.2364 - 1.2286
Resistance :1.2502 - 1.2572 - 1.2671
We will closely watch the 107.82 main support level. As long as the pair stays above 107.82, on a daily basis, the downward movement may be limited and the resistance levels can be found at 108.14 and 108.52. In contrast, if the price drops below 107.82, the next support level will be at 107.52.
Support : 107.82 - 107.52 - 107.22
Resistance: 108.14 - 108.52 - 108.79
The precious metal's price found buyers from the main support level of 1490 and closed last week just below 1626.
The Gold Price continues to be strong following the outbreak of COVID-19, and the weakening outlook for the world economy may keep the precious metal afloat as it fuels bets for monetary support.
In order for the upward movement to gain more power, it needs to break out and stay above 1626 on a daily basis. Should this occur, we will see 1638 and 1650 as the next resistance levels. Otherwise, we will follow the support levels at 1612 and 1606.
Support: 1612 - 1606 - 1590
Resistance: 1626 - 1638 - 1650
29 Mar 20 (Sun)
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