Weekly Technical Analysis For November 4th to 8th, 2019

The Fed Decision And US Non-Farm Payrolls Data Are Behind Us, What Is Next?


We received a strong US Non-Farm Payrolls data last Friday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls in October increased by 128K following September's reading of 180K (revised from 136K) and came in stronger than the market expectation of 89K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% in October as expected. Annual wage inflation, as measured by average hourly earnings, stayed unchanged at 3%.

In addition to that, the US GDP growth beat expectations. Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.9% annualized rate, according to Commerce Department data Wednesday that topped the forecast of 1.6% growth.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday, in what was a widely expected decision. The Fed said economic activity had been rising at a "moderate" rate, though it pointed to "muted inflation pressures" as one the reasons for cutting rates.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar will bring an update on the health of the U.S. economy, with reports on Factory Orders, Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and JOLTs Job Openings.

In the Eurozone, a report on Retail Sales Wednesday will offer more insight on whether the bloc’s largest economy is on track for a recession. Eurozone Retail Sales are expected to rise to 2.5% y-o-y from 2.1% growth in the previous number. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the Euro.

The EURUSD pair showed an upward movement and reached the 1.1165 daily resistance level. In order for the rise to gain more power, it needs to stay above 1.1165 on a daily basis. At this point, we will see 1.1237 as the next resistance level. Otherwise, we will follow the support level at 1.1114.

Support : 1.1114 - 1.1052 - 1.0007 

Resistance : 1.1165 - 1.1237 - 1.1307


U.K. lawmakers voted by 438 to 20 to hold an early general election on December 12. 

The BoE is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on Thursday. The Bank of England is not expected to make any changes, but its rate statement will be closely watched for any concerns over the economic fallout from Brexit.

Keep your eye on the 1.2947 main resistance level. In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 1.2947 on a four hourly basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be at 1.3046. Otherwise, the key support level will be found at 1.2838 again.

Support : 1.2838 - 1.2768 - 1.2671

Resistance : 1.2947 - 1.3046 - 1.3136


The Bank of Japan maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0%.

The USDJPY pair closed last week above the key support level of 108.14. As long as the price stays above 108.14, on a four hourly basis, we will follow 108.52 as a major resistance level. On the other hand, if the price drops below 108.14, the next support level can be seen at 107.82. 

Support : 108.14 - 107.82 - 107.52
Resistance : 108.52 - 108.79 - 109.09


The Gold Price showed an upward movement and closed last week above the main support level of 1509. As long as the yellow metal price stays above 1509 on a four hourly basis, the rise may gain more momentum and the daily resistance level can be found at 1524. Otherwise, if the price drops below 1509, the next daily support level will be at 1492.

Support: 1509 - 1492 - 1478 

Resistance 1524 - 1540 - 1555

03 Nov 19 (Sun)

06:19 pm

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