Weekly Technical Analysis For October 28th to November 1st, 2019

A Busy Week Ahead: Watch Out For The Fed Rate Decision And NFP!

EUR/USD:

The EURUSD pair showed a downward movement last week after the ECB Rate Decision. The European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged on Thursday after unveiling a big stimulus package last month, but there are concerns the ECB's firepower has largely been spent. The meeting was the final monetary policy meeting for Draghi. 

Christine Lagarde as the next President of the ECB will take office on 1 November. ECB's Wunsch said last week that the September package means Lagarde does not have to make decisions in the first few meetings.

ECB released the results of its latest survey of professional forecasters last Friday. Economists cut euro area inflation and economic outlook: 2019 inflation seen at 1.2% (previously 1.3%), 2020 inflation seen at 1.2% (previously 1.4%).

In the Eurozone, the German inflation figures for October will be published on Wednesday. The consensus forecast is that the report will show consumer prices rose 1.0%, slowing from 1.2% in September, remaining short of the European Central Bank's target of just below 2%. 

Keep your eye on the gross domestic product on Wednesday, which is expected to show that U.S. economic growth ease to 1.7% from 2.0%.

The Fed is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for a third time this year, but this is largely priced into the market. If the US economy continues to soften, we might see additional rate cuts from the Fed. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the meeting, with awaiting his insights on the policy outlook.

Finally, we will focus on the US Jobs Report on Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to see 90K jobs created after rising 136K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to come out at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.3%, lower than the previous month's number of 0.4% An upbeat employment report will point to an improving US economy and support the greenback.

The EURUSD pair showed a downward movement below the key level of 1.1114 last Friday. If the price stays below 1.1114, on a four hourly basis, the fall may continue and we will follow the support levels at 1.1052 and 1.1007. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.1114, the next resistance level will be at 1.1165 again.

Support : 1.1052 - 1.0007 - 1.0965

Resistance : 1.1114 - 1.1165 - 1.1237

GBP/USD:

The Sterling fell against the US Dollar after Prime Minister Boris Johnson's call for an election cast yet more uncertainty over Britain's divorce from the European Union.

We will focus on European Union officials for deciding how long they will extend Britain's deadline to leave the EU beyond the current date of Oct. 31.

Keep your eye on the main level of 1.2838. If the GBPUSD pair stays below 1.2838 on a four hourly basis, the downward movement may continue and we will watch the support level at 1.2768. On the upside, if the price goes beyond 1.2838, the resistance level can be found at 1.2947.

Support : 1.2768 - 1.2671 - 1.2572

Resistance: 1.2838 - 1.2947 - 1.3046

USD/JPY:

Pay attention to the BoJ Monetary Policy meeting in the upcoming week. The BOJ is expected to keep the policy on hold next week, but the decision is a close call as policymakers struggle with the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war.

The USDJPY pair moved up above the 108.52 daily support level. In the event that the rise continues, we will face 108.79 and 109.09 as the resistance levels. On the other hand, if the pair drops below 108.52, we will see the next support level at 108.14 

Support : 108.52 - 108.14 - 107.82

Resistance: 108.79 - 109.09 - 109.39

GOLD:

The Gold Price showed an upward movement last week. We will closely watch the main resistance level of 1509. In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 1509 on a four hourly basis. In this case, the next daily resistance level can be seen at 1524. Otherwise, the key support level can be seen at 1492 again.

Support: 1492 - 1478 - 1466

Resistance: 1509 - 1524 - 1540

27 Oct 19 (Sun)

05:19 pm


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