Weekly Technical Analysis For October 7th to 12th, 2019

Focus On FOMC Minutes And US CPI Inflation This Week


US Nonfarm payrolls increased by 136K jobs in September versus 145K expected. August data was revised to show 168K jobs created instead of the previously reported 130K positions. The US unemployment rate dropping to near a 50-year low of 3.5% On the other hand, annual wage inflation, as measured by average hourly earnings, fell to 2.9% in September. White House adviser Navarro said that Job numbers should not deter the Fed from lowering rates.

The latest economic indicator to point to a sharp downturn in the United States. The Market is under pressure from US trade disputes with China and other countries could spill over into the broader U.S. economy and eventually tip it into a recession.

In the upcoming week, we will closely watch the US CPI inflation figures on Thursday, which should lend further support to the notion that inflation has returned to the Fed’s target.

Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.1% last month and 1.8% over the prior year, according to estimates. Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is projected to climb 2.4% on a year-over-year basis.

Besides the inflation data, Investors will focus on the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting on Wednesday for further insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead.

The Fed cut interest rates for a second time this year in the last meeting. The rate cut was widely expected, but the split vote has raised some concern about predicting the future path of monetary policy.

The EURUSD pair closed last week above the daily support level of 1.0965. As long as the pair stays above 10965 on a daily basis, the rise may continue and we will see the resistance levels at 1.1007 and 1.1052. On the other hand, if the pair falls below 1.0964, the next support level will be located at 1.0930.

Support:  1.0965 - 1.0930 - 1.0876

Resistance: 1.1007 - 1.1052 - 1.1114


Focus on the 1.2364 main resistance level. In order for the GBPUSD rise to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and sustains above 1.2364 on a daily basis. At this point, we will follow the next resistance level at 1.2428. Otherwise, the support level will be at 1.2286
Support:  1.2286 - 1.2205 - 1.2110

Resistance: 1.2364 - 1.2428 - 1.2502


The USDJPY downward movement paused at the 106.72 daily support level. As long as the pair stays above 106.72, on a daily basis, we will watch the resistance levels at 106.98 and 107.22. On the other hand, if the price drops below 106.72, the next support level can be seen at 106.41.

Support : 106.72 - 106.41 - 106.15

Resistance: 106.98 - 107.22 - 107.52


Keep your eye on the key resistance level of 1509. In order for the upward movement to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 1509 on a four hourly basis. Should this occur, the next daily resistance level can be seen at 1524. Otherwise, the key support level will be at 1492.

Support: 1492 - 1478 - 1466

Resistance: 1509 - 1524 - 1540

06 Oct 19 (Sun)

07:19 pm

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