Weekly Technical Analysis For September 30th to October 4th, 2019

Will EURUSD Bearish Action Continue?

EUR/USD:

Last week's US GDP Data showed that U.S. second-quarter economic growth slowed to 2%, in line with expectations. Addition to that, US Core PCE Deflator rose 1.8% year on year basis in September, which held below the Fed’s target as forecast, doing little to change market expectations that the U.S. central bank could cut rates at their next meeting.

Fed cut interest rates by a quarter-point for the second time in two months due to slowing growth in the global economy and worries about trade.

The EURUSD pair hit it’s the lowest level since May 2017. The German economy is heading toward a recession and Eurozone inflation kept the single currency on the defensive.

Looking ahead, watch out for the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate next week. On the year-on-year basis, the Eurozone CPI is expected to stay at 1.0% 

Finally, we will focus on the US Jobs Report on Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to see 143K jobs created after rising 130K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 3.7%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.3% lower than the previous month's number of 0.4% An upbeat employment report will point to an improving US economy and support the greenback.

The Euro was under pressure versus the US Dollar last week. Keep your eye on the major resistance level of 1.0965. As long as the price stays below 1.0965 on a daily basis, the bearish action is most likely dominate and we will watch 1.0930 and 1.0876 as support levels. On the other hand, if the pair goes beyond 1.0965, the next resistance level will be at 1.1007.

Support: 1.0930 - 1.0876

Resistance: 1.0965 - 1.1007 - 1.1052

GBP/USD:  

The Brexit turmoil still continues. The U.K. had not yet sent a proposal for a Brexit deal. U.K. Prime Minister Johnson faces political pressures.

The GBPUSD pair dropped the key support level of 1.2286. If the price breaks down below 1.2286 and stays below that level on a four hourly basis, the fall may gain more momentum and the next daily support level will be at 1.2205. On the other hand, If the price moves up above 1.2286 we will see the resistance level at 1.2364. 

Support: 1.2286 - 1.2205 - 1.2110 

Resistance: 1.2364 - 1.2428 - 1.2502

USD/JPY:

The USDJPY pair closed last week above the 107.82 daily support level. As long as the pair stays above 107.82, on a daily basis, the resistance levels can be found at 108.14 and 108.52. In contrast, if the price drops below 107.82, the next support level will be at 107.52.

Support : 107.82 - 107.52 - 107.22

Resistance: 108.14 - 108.52 - 108.79

GOLD:

The GOLD price gave up all this week gains and dropped the 1492 daily support level last week. As long as the price stays above 1492 on a daily basis, the downward movement may be limited and we will see the key resistance level at 1509. On the downside, If the price drops below 1492 again, the next support level can be found at 1478.

Support:  1492 - 1478 - 1466

Resistance: 1509 - 1524 - 1540

28 Sep 19 (Sat)

03:28 pm


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