Weekly Technical Analysis For September 23rd to 27th, 2017

Pay Attention To US GDP Number This Week

EUR/USD:

The Fed Rate Decision is behind us now. The Fed cut interest rates for a second time this year last Wednesday in a 7-3 vote. The rate cut was widely expected, but the split vote has raised some concern about predicting the future path of monetary policy.

In the Fed’s economic projections, despite all the geopolitical and economic developments over the last three months, the central bank left its projections essentially unchanged from June. All the FOMC agrees the US economy is in a good place.

In last week's report, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cut 2019 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.2%. Additionally, OECD projected US GDP growth at 2.4% in 2019

The U.S. will release the reading of second-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday with forecasts for a downward revision to 2.0% from the initial 3.1%. As ongoing trade conflicts dampen global growth, strong domestic consumption has kept the U.S. economy resilient.

Keep your eye on US Core PCE data which its preferred inflation gauge by Fed. The Core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.2% in August. Year on year, economists forecast a 1.8% rise. 

Moreover, Weekly jobless claims will be in focus as traders evaluate the solid U.S. labor market, while numbers on pending home sales for August will give insight into the state of real estate market in an environment of falling mortgage rates in the upcoming week.

The EURUSD pair pulled back below the major level of 1.1052 last Friday. In the event that the fall continues, we will watch 1.0979 as a support level. Moreover, in order for the bearish action to gain more momentum, it needs to break down and stay below 1.0979 on a daily basis. In contrast, if the pair goes beyond 1.1052, the next resistance level will be at 1.1114.
 
Support: 1.0979 - 1.0837
 
Resistance : 1.1052 - 1.1114 - 1.1165

GBP/USD:

The Bank of England left interest rates on hold last Thursday. as it awaits further clarity on Britain’s preparedness for exiting the EU.

If Brexit uncertainty persists, inflation will likely become weaker, the bank said in its statement. Staff forecasts expect inflation to remain below 2% target for the rest of this year. Officials also reiterated that reaction to no-deal Brexit would not be automatic.Outlook for global growth has weakened due to US-China trade war; UK underlying growth has slowed but remains positive

The GBPUSD reached the key resistance level of 1.2572, which is the two month-high level. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he believes a Brexit deal could be passed before the deadline. However, the pair could not stay above 1.2572 and then we saw a profit-taking action.

Keep your eye on the key resistance level of 1.2502. As long as the price stays below 1.2502,  on a four hourly basis, we will see 1.2428 and 1.2364 as support levels. On the other hand, if the pair rises above 1.2502, the next resistance level is holding at 1.2572 again.

Support: 1.2428 - 1.2364 - 1.2286

Resistance: 1.2502 - 1.2572 - 1.2671

USD/JPY:

The Bank of Japan kept rates steady overnight but echoed the Fed in its warning on global risks. The BOJ signaled it could also increase stimulus to help the Japanese economy.

We will closely watch the 107.52 main support level. As long as the pair stays above 107.52, on a four hourly basis, the daily resistance level can be found at 107.82. In contrast, if the price drops below 107.52, the next support level will be at 107.22.

Support :  107.52 - 107.22 - 108.98

Resistance: 107.82 - 108.18 - 108.52 

GOLD:

The GOLD price found buyers from the 1492 daily support level and then moved up last week. In the event that the rise continues, we will follow the key resistance level at 1524.  On the downside, If the price moves below 1509, the next support level can be found at 1492 again.

Support:  1509 - 1492 - 1478

Resistance: 1524 - 1540 - 1555

22 Sep 19 (Sun)

09:20 pm


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