Weekly Technical Analysis For September 16th to 20th, 2019

A Busy Week Ahead; Focus On The Fed And BoE Rate Decisions

EUR/USD:

The Euro jumped back up against the US Dollar after the European Central Bank cut its key interest rate further into negative territory and announced it would restart quantitative easing from November.

The ECB announced overnight a quantitative easing program that entails 20 billion euros per month. The central bank also cut its main deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.5%, in line with market expectations.

U.S. President Donald Trump keeps attack to the Federal Reserve for not doing enough to support the U.S. economy.

In the upcoming week, we will focus on the Fed Rate Decision and Eurozone CPI Inflation. 

The Fed is scheduled to hold its policy meeting on Wednesday. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter-point. In the July meeting, the Fed cut rates for the first time in over a decade. Powell's speech will likely be parsed for clues on whether the central bank is leaning more dovish in the run-up to the Fed meeting on Sept. 17-18.

Investors will also get an update on the health of the U.S. housing market from reports on Existing Home Sales, Building Permits and Housing Starts.

Moreover, the Eurozone will publish inflation figures for August on Wednesday. On the year-on-year basis, the Eurozone CPI is expected to stay at 1.0%. The core figure, without volatile energy and food prices, is seen holding steady at 0.9%, unchanged from the preceding month.

The EURUSD pair closed last week above the 1.1052 daily support level. As long as the price stays above 1.1052 on a daily basis, the upward momentum may continue and the resistance levels can be found at 1.1114 and 1.1116. On the other hand, if the price moves down 1.1052, we will see 1.0979 as the next daily support level again.

Support : 1.1052 - 1.0979 - 1.0837

Resistance : 1.1114 - 1.1165 - 1.1237

GBP/USD:

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold in a unanimous decision at its meeting on Thursday, as policymakers wait for the fog of the U.K.’s departure from the European Union to clear.

The UK Office for National Statistics will release data on consumer price inflation for August on Wednesday. Analysts expect annual CPI to come out at 1.9%, while core inflation is forecast to ease from 1.9% to 1.7%.

Watch out the major resistance level of 1.2502. In order for the GBPUSD upward movement to continue, it needs to rise and stay above 1.2502 on a daily basis. In this case, we will see face 1.2572 as the next resistance level. Otherwise, we will see the support level at 1.2428.

Support :  1.2428 - 1.2364 - 1.2286

Resistance :1.2502 - 1.2572

USD/JPY:

The safe-haven Japanese yen hit a six-week low versus the US Dollar last week. We will closely watch the 108.18 key resistance level. In order for the rise to gain more power, it needs to rise and stay above 108.18 on a four hourly basis. At this point, we will face 108.52 as the next resistance level. In contrast, we will see the support level at 107.82.

Support : 107.82 - 107.52 - 107.22

Resistance: 108.14 - 108.52 - 108.79

GOLD:

The Gold price closed last week below the 1492 daily level. As long as the price stays below 1492, on a daily basis, we will follow 1478 as the main support level. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1492, the next resistance level is holding at 1509.

Support: 1478 - 1466

Resistance:  1492 - 1509 - 1524 

15 Sep 19 (Sun)

07:50 pm


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