Weekly Technical Analysis For August 19th to 23rd, 2019

Why Is The Upcoming Jackson Hole Summit Important?

EUR/USD:

The Euro was under selling pressure last week despite mounting evidence that the German economy is heading toward a recession.

The US dollar rose versus the Euro after the release of US inflation data. The US CPI increased to 1.8% yoy ahead of the 1.7% forecast. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile items such as food and fuel, unexpectedly ticked higher to 2.2% yoy, versus 2.1% forecast. 

Addition to that, U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in July from a month earlier, data showed last Thursday. Markets previously expected a rise of 0.3%.

In the upcoming week, the FOMC meeting notes will be important releases in the US. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in their last meeting and they announced it will end the balance sheet reduction program in August, two months earlier. The FOMC meeting Minutes may give a more detailed about Fed Outlook.

Keep your eye on the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is set to take place from Thursday to Saturday. The meeting is significant for the Global Financial Market as the Federal Reserve will be making keynote speeches. Markets started to price in a quarter-point interest rate cut in September Meeting. 

Moreover, the European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its last rate-setting meeting on Thursday.  The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged in their last meeting. The ECB Chair Draghi indicated the bank was prepared to cut rates in September and consider other options for easing. 

The EURUSD pair found sellers from the 1.1219 daily level and dropped below the daily level of 1.1103. As long as the price below 1.1103, on a daily basis, the downward movement may gain more momentum and the main support level will be found at 1.0980. In contrast, If the price rises above 1.1103, we will see the resistance level at 1.1219.

Support:  1.0980 - 1.0837

Resistance:  1.1103 - 1.1219 -  1.1285

GBP/USD:

The GBPUSD pair showed an upward movement after strong UK retail sales data last week. In the event that the upward movement continues, we will see 1.2395 as a key resistance level. On the other hand, if the selling pressure continues, we will follow 1.1979 as a daily support level.

Support: 1.1979

Resistance: 1.2395 - 1.2528 - 1.2607
 
USD/JPY:

We will closely watch the 106.72 daily resistance level in the USDJPY pair.  In order for the upward movement to continue, it needs to break out and stay above 106.72 on a daily basis. Should this occur, the next daily resistance level will be at 107.70. Otherwise, we will see the 105.19 support level again.

Support: 105.18

Resistance : 106.72 - 107.70 - 108.49
 
GOLD:

The Gold Price closed last week just above the 1512 main level. As long as the yellow metal price stays above 1512 on a four hourly basis. the upward movement is most likely dominate. At this point, the key resistance level can be found at 1547. Otherwise, If the price breaks down below 1512, the daily support level will be at 1483.

Support : 1512 - 1483 - 1451

Resistance: 1547 - 1575

18 Aug 19 (Sun)

07:53 pm


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