Weekly Technical Analysis For August 12th to 16th, 2019

Pay Attention To US Inflation Data This Week


The Euro has benefited from the US-China trade war. The EURUSD pair moved up and tested the daily level of 1.1219 last week. The U.S.-China trade war showed us a week of big swings in trading.

In the upcoming week, Inflation numbers will be the main market focus in the US. 

On average, economists expect that the US CPI rose 0.3% in July. The year-on-year rate of inflation is expected to rise to 1.7% from 1.6%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.2%. US consumer price inflation has been tame in recent years and consistently below the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Moreover, US Retail Sales figures will be closely watched this week. The Commerce Department will report July retail sales numbers on Thursday. Economists predict that retail sales rose 0.3% last month. On the other hand, Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are expected to have risen 0.4%. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the greenback.

In the Eurozone, the flash gross domestic product data will be released on Wednesday. The consensus forecast is the eurozone GDP grew 0.2% in the second quarter but in Germany - the bloc's largest economy - it's expected to have shrunk 0.1%.

The daily resistance level of 1.1219 is important for the EURUSD direction. In order for the upward movement to gain more power, it needs to break out and stay above 1.1219, on a daily basis. Should this occur, the next resistance level can be seen at 1.1285. Otherwise, the main support level will be at 1.1103

Support : 1.1103 - 1.0980 - 1.0837

Resistance : 1.1219 - 1.1285 - 1.1355


The Sterling was under selling pressure with hard Brexit fears. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains adamant that the UK will depart from the European Union (EU) no later than the October 31 deadline, with the new leader hopeful that “our friends and partners will show common sense and that they will compromise.”

In the upcoming week, traders will get the June employment report, as well as figures on retail sales and inflation. Retail sales are expected to have declined 0.3% last month after an increase of 1% in the previous month.

If the GBPUSD selling pressure continues, we will watch 1.1979 as a daily support level. In contrast, if the pair shows an upward movement, we will see 1.2395 as the main resistance level.

Support: 1.1979

Resistance : 1.2395 - 1.2528 - 1.2607


We will focus on the key support level of 105.18. In order for the USDJPY bearish action to gain more momentum, it needs to break down and stay below 105.18 on a daily basis. Otherwise, if the pair moves up, the daily resistance level can be seen at 106.72.

Support : 105.18 - 103.08 - 100.96

Resistance : 106.72 - 107.70 - 108.49


Safe-haven asset, Gold extended gains last week with US-China trade war and sing of impending Fed easing. Watch out for the 1512 main resistance level. In order for the bullish action to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 1512 on a four hourly basis. Otherwise, if the yellow metal price shows a profit-taking action, we will see 1483 and 1451 as support levels.

Support : 1483 - 1451 - 1414

Resistance : 1512 - 1547 - 1575

11 Aug 19 (Sun)

07:57 pm

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