Weekly Technical Analysis For August 5th to 9th, 2019

The Fed Rate Decision Is Behind Us, What Is Next?

EUR/USD:

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and they announced it will end the balance sheet reduction program in August, two months earlier. Additionally, Powell signaled that more cuts are not guaranteed in the FOMC press conference.

The US President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariff hikes on Chinese imports. He said that starting Sept 1st US will put an additional tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 billion dollars of goods coming from China into the US. China then swiftly said it will have to take countermeasures.

Last Friday, US Nonfarm payrolls rose by 164K in July, in line with consensus expectations. The jobless rate was unchanged at 3.7%.

Looking ahead, this week's calendar features U.S. data on Producer Price Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing and Service PMI as well as Crude Oil Inventories.

US PPI Inflation will be published on Friday. July’s producer price index is expected to come out at 1.8%, higher than a previous number of 1.7%. Core CPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.4% from 2.3%.

The EURUSD pair closed last week just above the 1.1103 daily support level. If the price stays above 1.1103 on a daily basis, we will see an upward momentum and the daily resistance level can be found at 1.1219. On the other hand, if the price moves down 1.1103, we will follow 1.0980 as the next daily support level.

Support : 1.1103 - 1.0980 - 1.0837

Resistance : 1.1219 - 1.1285 - 1.1355

GBP/USD:

Last week, the Sterling dropped to the lowest level since 2017 against to the greenback with the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal.

In the upcoming week, we will closely watch the UK GDP growth. The UK GDP is expected to come out 1.4%, year-on-year basis.

Additionally, UK Manufacturing Production for June will be also announced. The Data is expected to drop to -0.1% from 1.4% the preceding month. A lower than expected reading would be negative for the Sterling

In the event that the GBPUSD bearish action continues, we will see 1.1979 as a daily support level. On the other hand, if the pair shows an upward movement, we will face 1.2395 as a key resistance level.

Support: 1.1979

Resistance: 1.2395 - 1.2528 - 1.2607

USD/JPY:

The safe haven, yen extended gains against the US Dollar after Trump’s surprise Tariff Announcement last week.

Watch out for the 106.72 daily resistance level. As long as the pair stays below 106,72, on a daily basis, the downward momentum may gain more value, we will follow the daily support level at 105.18. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 106.72, the next resistance level can be seen at 107.70.

Support: 105.18

Resistance : 106.72 - 107.70 - 108.49

GOLD:

Gold price jumped back up after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would add tariffs on more Chinese goods.

In the event that the upward momentum continues, the main resistance level can be found at 1451. On the other hand, If the price shows a downward movement, we will follow the key support level at 1414.

Support: 1414 - 1391 - 1364

Resistance: 1451 - 1483

04 Aug 19 (Sun)

07:56 pm


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