Weekly Technical Analysis For July 8th to 12th, 2019

What To Watch For This Week

EUR/USD:

The US Dollar surged sharply last Friday following positive results from US Non-Farm Payrolls Data.

The US employment numbers for June came in better-than-expected with 224K versus 160K estimate. However, there was a small revision. The unemployment rate ticked up, helped by an uptick in the participation rates. Wages disappointed versus expectations.

In the upcoming week, we will closely watch the US CPI inflation figures on Thursday, which should lend further support to the notion that inflation has returned to the Fed’s target.

Consumer prices are expected to ease to 1.6% from 1.8%, according to estimates. Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is projected to stay 2.0% on a year-over-year basis.

Besides the inflation data, Investors will focus on the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting on Wednesday for further insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead.

Fed Chair Powell will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

Moreover, the European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its last rate-setting meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave the interest rates unchanged in their last meeting and they expected rates to hold at current levels through at least first-half 2020. The Meeting Notes may give a more detailed ECB Outlook for 2019.

The EURUSD pair showed a downward movement and dropped to the major support level of 1.1219 last Friday. However, as long as the pair stays above 1.1219 on a daily basis, the fall may be limited and we will see 1.1285 as a key resistance level. On the other hand, if the price breaks down below 1.1219, the next daily support level can be seen at 1.1103.

Support:  1.1219 - 1.1103 - 1.0980

Resistance: 1.1285 - 1.1355 - 1.1450

GBP/USD:

In the upcoming week, investors will look to a duo of reports on manufacturing and industrial production for an insight into the progress on UK economic growth amid fresh political uncertainty. Economists’ forecast manufacturing growth in May rose 2.2% from -3.9% fall in the previous month, while industrial activity is expected to have risen 1.6%.

The Sterling is under selling pressure versus the US Dollar last week. If the GBPUSD stays below 1.2528, on a daily basis, we will follow the main support level at 1.2395. On the other hand, if the pair rises above 1.2528, the next resistance level will be placed at 1.2607

Support: 1.2395

Resistance: 1.2528 - 1.2607 - 1.2668

USD/JPY:

We will focus on the daily resistance level at 108.49. In order for the upward movement to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 108.49 on a daily basis. At this point, we will see the next resistance level at 108.95. Otherwise, the upward movement may pause and the support level can be seen at 107.70.
 
Support : 107.70 - 106.72 
 
Resistance :108.49 - 108.95 - 109.57

GOLD:

The Gold Price showed an upward reaction after a sharp drop with strong US Non-Farm Payrolls. The daily support level of 1391 is critical for the yellow metal. As long as the price stays above 1391, on a daily basis, we will see 1414 as the main resistance level again. On the other hand, If the yellow metal’s price moves down below 1391, the next daily support level can be seen in 1377.

Support: 1391 -  1377 - 1364 

Resistance: 1414 - 1451 - 1483

07 Jul 19 (Sun)

07:36 pm


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