Weekly Technical Analysis For July 1st to 5th, 2019

G20 Meeting Is Behind Us, The Focus Is Now On US Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR/USD:

Last Thursday. the US GDP expanded 3.1% on a yearly basis in the first quarter to match the market expectation and the previous estimate.

Additionally, US Core PCE Deflator rose 1.6% year on year basis in May, which held below the Fed’s target as forecast, doing little to change market expectations that the U.S. central bank could cut rates at their next meeting in July.

G20 Meeting is also behind us. US and China agreed on Saturday to restart talks. Current tariffs remain in place while negotiations resume. Moreover, Trump decided to allow expanded sales of U.S. technology supplies to Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei. but it will only apply to products widely available around the world.

Looking ahead. the U.S. Labor Department will publish its monthly employment report for June on Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to see 160K jobs created after rising 75K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 3.6% that is its lowest level since December 1969. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.3 higher than the previous month's number of 0.2% An upbeat employment report will point to an improving US Economy and support the greenback.

The EURUSD pair stayed in a narrow consolidation range last week. Watch out for the 1.1355 daily support level. As long as the pair stays above 1.1355 on a daily basis, we will watch 1.1450 as a resistance level. On the other hand, if the price breaks down 1.1355, the key support level can be found at 1.1285.

Support: 1.1355 - 1.1285 - 1.1219

Resistance: 1.1450 - 1.1554 - 1.1648

GBP/USD:

In the UK, the GDP grew by 1.8% on a year-to-year basis. On a quarterly basis, Britain registered a meager growth of 0.5%, which was also in line with expectations for no change from the previous reading.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on a trio of reports on activity in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit turmoil is having on the economy.

If the GBPUSD pair stays above the 1.2668 major support level on a daily basis, we will see the key resistance levels at 1.2723 and 1.2807. On the other hand, if the pair breaks down below 1.2668, the next support level can be found at 1.2607.

Support:  1.2668 - 1.2607 - 1.2528 

Resistance: 1.2723 - 1.2807 - 1.2871

USD/JPY: 

The USDJPY pair found buyers just above the 106.72 main support level and then moved up last week. If the pair stays above 107.70, on a four hourly basis, the upward movement may continue and we will see the daily resistance level at 108.49. On the other hand, if the price drops below 107.70, the next support level can be found at 106.72.

Support: 107.70 - 106.72 

Resistance :108.49 - 108.95 - 109.57

GOLD:  

The GOLD price extended gains last week with the possibility of lower rates and weakness in the dollar.  Fed Fund futures now highlight 100% probability for at least a 25 basis points rate cut at the next rate decision on July 31.
 
Focus on the 1414 main resistance level in the yellow metal price.  In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to stay above 1414 on a four hourly basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be placed in 1451. Otherwise, the daily support level will be found in 1391.
 
Support: 1391 - 1364 - 1351

Resistance: 1414 - 1451 - 1483

30 Jun 19 (Sun)

07:46 pm


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