Why Is This Week So Important For USD?
The US Dollar reached near a two-year high versus the Euro last week. Economic growth in the US unexpectedly accelerated in the first quarter. The US Gross Domestic Product registered a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% growth in the first three months of 2019, above expectations for a reading of 2.0% and an increase from 2.2% in the final three months of last year.
The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting will be the biggest event for the market in the week ahead. While the U.S. central bank is not expected to take action on interest rates.
At their last meeting, the Fed surprised markets by announcing there will be no more rate hikes in 2019. They said it would stop its balance-sheet reduction program in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be a closely-watched press conference 30 minutes after the release of the Fed's statement.
Watch out for the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to see 181K jobs created after rising 196K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.3% higher than the previous month's number of 0.1%. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the US Dollar.
Moreover, we will closely watch the GDP number for the first quarter and CPI inflation data in the Eurozone this week.
The Euro was under selling pressure versus the US Dollar. The daily support level of 1.1103 is critical for EURUSD direction. As long as the price stays above 1.1103, the downward movement may be limited and we will see 1.1219 again. On the other hand, if the price breaks down 1.1103, we will face 1.0980 as a daily support level.
Support: 1.1103 - 1.0980 - 1.0837
Resistance: 1.1219 - 1.1285 - 1.1355
The Bank of England will announce its policy announcement on Thursday. The market expects the BoE keeps unchanged their benchmark interest rates at 0.75%. If the BoE projects a more aggressive interest rate hike outlook, it can drive the Sterling higher.
The GBPUSD pair closed last week below the 1.2931 level. As long as the price stays below 1.2931 on a four hourly basis, the daily support level can be found at 1.2871 again. On the other hand, if the price rises above 1.2931, we will see the next daily resistance level at 1.2994.
Support: 1.2871 - 1.2807 - 1.2723
Resistance: 1.2931 - 1.2994 - 1.3055
The Japanese central bank made no changes to its monetary policy settings at its April meeting but modified its forward guidance on the interest rates by finally providing a timeline for low-interest rates.
The USDJPY pair found sellers from the resistance level of 112.36 and then showed a downward movement last week. In the event that the fall continues, we will see the daily support level of 111.18. On the other hand, if the pair goes beyond 111.85, the next daily resistance level can be found at 112.36 again
Support: 111.18 - 110.35 - 109.57
Resistance: 111.85 - 112.37 - 112.98
The Gold Price jumped up from the 1266 main support level last week. Now, we will focus on the daily resistance level of 1291. in order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 1291 on a daily basis. Otherwise, the upward movement may be limited and the next support level will be found in 1278.
Support:1278 - 1266 - 1251
Resistance: 1291 - 1305 - 1316
28 Apr 19 (Sun)
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