Weekly Technical Analysis For April 8th to 12th, 2019

All Eyes Will Be On The ECB Policy Decision And FOMC Minutes

EUR/USD:

March US Payrolls surged by 196K but Wage Growth was disappointing. US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 196K in March, above consensus expectations for 175K. The jobless rate held steady at 3.8%, in line with consensus. However, Wage inflation grew 3.2% on an annualized basis, slowing from the prior month’s reading of 3.4%.

A busy week ahead, we will focus on the ECB Monetary Policy Decision on Wednesday. There is no rate change expected from the ECB. We faced with a serious slowdown in the Eurozone and the European Central Bank is expected to slash its growth forecasts. The ECB announcement will be followed by President Mario Draghi's news conference. The meeting will bring new information about the ECB's policy.

In the US, keep your eye on the CPI figures on Wednesday. US Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.3% in March from 0.2%. On a yearly base, CPI is projected to climb 1.8%, higher than 1.5% a month earlier. Excluding the cost of food and fuel, prices are forecast to have gained 0.2% last month and 2.1% from a year ago.

Additionally, March US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published on Thursday. Economists expect that the PPI rose 0.3% last month with the core PPI rising 0.2%. That would bring year-over-year PPI growth to 1.9% and core PPI growth up 2.5%

Moreover, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its March 20 policy meeting on Wednesday. At their last meeting, The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed surprised markets by announcing there will be no more rate hikes in 2019. They said it would stop its balance-sheet reduction program in September.

The EURUSD pair closed last week below the major level of 1.1219. As long as the pair stays below 1.1219 on a daily basis, the selling pressure may gain more momentum and the daily support level can be found at 1.1103. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.1219, we will follow 1.1285 as a key resistance level. 
 
Support:  1.1103 - 1.0980 - 1.0837

Resistance: 1.1219 -  1.1285 - 1.1355

GBP/USD:

In the UK, we will focus on the British GDP Number on Wednesday for further hints on the health of the economy. Additionally, trade balance data, industrial and manufacturing figures will be closely watched by traders at the same time.

The GBPUSD pair showed an upward reaction from the 1.2994 daily support level. As long as the price stays above 1.2994 on a daily basis, the key resistance levels can be found at 1.3055 and 1.3152. On the other hand, if the price breaks down below 1.2994, we will see the next support level at 1.2931.

Support:   1.2994 - 1.2931 - 1.2871

Resistance: 1.3055 - 1.3152 - 1.3217

USD/JPY:

Keep your eye on the key resistance level of 111.85 in the USDJPY pair. In order for the bullish action to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 111.85 on a four hourly basis. In this case, the daily resistance level can be seen at 112.36. Otherwise, the daily support level will be at 111.18.

Support: 111.18 - 110.35 - 109.57

Resistance: 111.85 - 112.36 - 112.98 

GOLD:

The Gold Price stayed in a narrow consolidation range last week. The daily support level of 1291 is critical for the precious metal’s direction. As long as the price sustains above 1291, on a daily basis, we might see an upward movement. Should this occur, we will follow the resistance level at 1305. On the other hand, if the price falls below 1291, the next support level will be found in 1278. 

Support: 1291 - 1278 - 1266

Resistance: 1305 - 1316 - 1327

07 Apr 19 (Sun)

06:39 pm


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