Weekly Technical Analysis For March 11th to 15th, 2019

Pay Attention For US CPI Inflation This Week

EUR/USD: 

The Euro was under pressure after the European Central Bank cut its growth forecasts and failed to convince markets with its plan for stabilizing the Eurozone economy. ECB kept rates unchanged and announced a new liquidity operation to support lending. ECB's Nowotny said details of TLTRO will be announced in June.

Last Friday, the U.S. added 20K jobs in February, the weakest gain in more than a year. Other details of the report showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% and the wage inflation, as measured by the average hourly earnings, rose 0.4% on a month.

Looking ahead, the Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales are in focus in the US.

One of the major indicators of economic conditions, US CPI Inflation, will be published on Tuesday. February’s Consumer Price Index is expected to come out at 1.6%, the same as the a previous number. Also, Core CPI inflation is expected to stay at 2.2%.

Core Retail Sales excluding auto and gas are expected to rise to 0.2% m/m from -1.8% fall in the previous number. A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the greenback.

If we look at the Eurozone area, watch out for the Eurozone Consumer Price Index on Friday. On the year-on-year basis, the Eurozone CPI is expected to stay at 1.5%.

The EURUSD pair showed an upward reaction after falling the lowest level since June 2017. The 1.1219 daily support level is significant. As long as the pair stays above 1.1219 on a daily basis, the downward movement may be limited and we will see 1.1285 as a resistance level.

Support:  1.1219 - 1.1103 - 1.0980

Resistance: 1.1285 - 1.1355 - 1.1450

GBP/USD:

In the upcoming week, we will focus on the British parliament's vote on whether to approve Prime Minister Theresa May's withdrawal deal.

Next Week’s UK Brexit Votes

- Mar 12th: 2nd meaningful vote

- Mar 13th: Vote on No-deal if MV fails

- Mar 14th: Vote on Article 50 extension

The GBPUSD pair closed last week above the 1.2994 daily support level. As long as the price stays above 1.2994 on a daily basis, we might see an upward movement, the resistance level can be found at 1.2994. On the other hand, if the price moves down below 1.2994 again, we will see the next support level at 1.2931.

Support:   1.2994 - 1.2931 - 1.2871

Resistance: 1.3055 - 1.3152 - 1.3217

USD/JPY:

The USDJPY pair closed last week just below the daily level of 111.18. As long as the pair stays below 111.18 on a daily basis, the downward may continue, the key support level can be seen at 110.35. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 111.18, the next resistance level is holding at 111.85

Support: 110.35 - 109.57 - 108.95

Resistance: 111.18 - 111.85 - 112.36

GOLD:

The Gold Price moved higher after weaker US Jobs gains. Dollar lower helps Gold rally. In the event that the upward movement continues above the daily level of 1291, we will see the resistance levels at 1305 and 1316. On the other hand, if the price moves down 1291, the next support level will be seen at 1278.

Support: 1291 - 1278 - 1266

Resistance: 1305 - 1316 - 1327

10 Mar 19 (Sun)

07:16 pm


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