Weekly Technical Analysis For January 21st to 25th, 2019

All Eyes Will Be On The ECB Policy Decision

EUR/USD: 

The US Dollar gained more value versus the Euro last week. Eurozone consumer price index came out and it was flat in December, while the annual rate of inflation fell to 1.6% from 1.9% in November, according to a revised estimate released last Thursday.

In the upcoming week, watch out for the ECB Monetary Policy Decision on Thursday. There is no rate change expected from the ECB.  After ending its asset-purchase program at its previous meeting in December, traders expected the ECB would follow with a rate rise in the third quarter of 2019. The announcement will be followed by President Mario Draghi's news conference and his statements about the ECB plans to start hiking borrowing costs. The meeting will bring new information about the ECB's policy.

Additionally, looking ahead among next week's economic data, German ZEW Surveys, Manufacturing PMI Numbers, US Existing-Home Sales as well as the US Core Durable Goods Orders will be closely followed by traders.

The EURUSD pair broke down the 1.1446  key level and then closed last week just below the daily level of 1.1367. As long as the price stays below 1.1367, on a daily basis, the selling pressure is most likely dominate.  At this point, we will see 1.1262 as a support level. On the other hand, if the pair moves up above 1.1367, the next resistance level can be found at 1.1446 again.

Support: 1.1262 – 1.1188 - 1.1122

Resistance: 1.1367 – 1.1446 - 1.1531

GBP/USD: 

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit Plan was struck down by a 230-vote margin last week. Moreover, The annual rate of change in Britain's CPI dropped to 2.1% last month, its lowest level since Jan. 2017. Traders widely expect UK’s central bank to make no changes to interest rates until uncertainty from continuing negotiations over Brexit is resolved.

If the GBPUSD pair broke down the 1.2844 key support level. the downward movement may continue and we will follow 1.2712 as a daily support level. On the other hand, if the price shows an upward movement above 1.2844, the daily resistance level will be at 1.2961 again.

Support: 1.2712 – 1.2624 – 1.2494

Resistance: 1.2844 - 1.2961 - 1.3050 

USD/JPY :

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement on Wednesday. The BoJ is widely expected to keep monetary policy unchanged. We will also face a quarterly report analyzing Japan's economy that will include fresh growth and inflation forecasts through the fiscal year ending in March 2021.

We are focusing on the main resistance level of 109.90 in the USDJPY pair. In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to break out and stay above 109.90 on a four hourly basis. Should this occur, the next resistance level will be at 110.86. On the other hand, if the pair moves down, we will see 109.35 as a daily support level.

Support: 109.35 - 108.78 - 107.65

Resistance: 109.90 - 110.86 - 111.66

GOLD:

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The GOLD Price could not sustain above the 1291 key level last week and then dropped below the major level of 1283. As long as the yellow metal price stays below 1283, on a daily basis, the pullbacks may continue and we will see 1276 as a support level. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond above 1283, the next resistance level will be placed at 1291 again.

Support: 1276 - 1272 - 1265 

Resistance: 1283 - 1291 - 1307

20 Jan 19 (Sun)

09:25 pm


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