Weekly Technical Analysis For November 26th to 30th, 2018

Keep Your Eye On The Fed Minutes And US GDP Growth!

EUR/USD:

The EURUSD pair showed a downward movement and closed last week below the daily level of 1.1367. The Euro was under pressure with signs of weaker eurozone economic growth. The Eurozone business growth slowed this month, due to a sluggish global economy and an ongoing United States-led trade war.

In the upcoming week, the FOMC Meeting Notes and GDP Growth will be important releases in the US.  In their last meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 2.25%, as expected. They added that the labor market has continued to strengthen and economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. A fourth rate hike for this year is widely expected next month. The FOMC Meeting Minutes may give more details about the Fed's Outlook.

The US GDP for the third quarter will come out on Wednesday, and it is expected to rise to 3.6% annual rate from a previous number of 3.5%. Additionally, the US CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, and Crude Oil Inventories as well as  Core PCE Price Index will be closely watched from the market in the upcoming week.

If we look at the Eurozone Area, watch out for the Consumer Price Index. On the year-on-year basis, the Eurozone CPI is expected to ease to 2.1% from 2.2%. A lower than expected reading will be negative for the single currency.

Finally, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of a two-day G20 summit in Buenos Aires, starting on Friday. It will be significant for the trade war between the world's two largest economies, however, no progress is expected from the Trump-Xi talks. 

We will focus on the 1.1367 daily resistance level. As long as the price stays below 1.1367, on a daily basis, the selling pressure may continue and we will see 1.1262 as a key support level. On the other hand, if the pair goes beyond 1.1367, the next resistance level can be found at 1.1446.

Support: 1.1262 - 1.1188 - 1.1122

Resistance: 1.1367 - 1.1446 - 1.1531

GBP/USD:

EU leaders have approved an agreement on the UK's withdrawal from the EU and future relations - insisting it is the best and only deal possible. They also said the deal - which needs to be approved by the UK Parliament - paved the way for an orderly withdrawal. The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. We might see a positive reaction in the Sterling.

In order for the Sterling to gain more value versus the greenback, it needs to go beyond and sustains above 1.2844 on a four hourly basis. Should this occur, the next daily resistance level will be at 1.2961. Otherwise, we will see the daily support level at 1.2712.

Support: 1.2844 - 1.2712 - 1.2624

Resistance: 1.2961 - 1.3050 - 1.3152

USD/JPY:

The USDJPY pair downward movement was limited at the key level of 112.46. As long as the price stays above 112.46 on a four hourly basis, we will see the main resistance level at 113.63. On the other hand, if the price break down below 112.46, the next support level can be found at 111.66

Support:  112.46 - 111.66 - 110.86

Resistance: 113.63 - 114.63 - 115.61

GOLD:

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The Gold price showed a bearish action and closed last week below the key level of 1225. As long as the price stays below 1225, on a four hourly basis, the pullbacks may continue and we will follow support levels at 1215. On the other hand, if the price rises above 1225, the next resistance level can be found at 1235.

Support: 1215 - 1207 - 1199

Resistance: 1225 - 1235 - 1243

25 Nov 18 (Sun)

08:54 pm


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