Weekly Technical Analysis For July 9th to 13th, 2018

Will The EURUSD Rise Continue? EUR/USD: The EURUSD pair jumped up after US Jobs Report was published last Friday. The Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 213K in June, which is higher than the consensus estimate for the creation of 200K jobs. The previous month’s reading of NFP was revised to 244K from the 223K registered initially. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.8% to 4.0%. Average hourly earnings advanced 0.2% month-on-month in June, below expectations for it to repeat a 0.3% gain. The US Dollar rally stopped after disappointing US GDP growth and Unemployment rate. Now, we will focus on the other major indicator of economic conditions that is US CPI inflation in the upcoming week. The June's customer price index is expected to come out at 2.9%, higher than a previous number of 2.8%. On the other hand, Core CPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.3% from 2.2% a month earlier. Acceleration in headline inflation may prompt investors to price further rate hikes from Fed. In the Eurozone, watch out for the ECB meeting minutes. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 0%, as expected at their last meeting. But, they signaled the end of QE. Net asset purchases will be reduced to €15 billion from Oct until the end of December 2018 and that net purchases will then end. However, rates will be unchanged till Summer 2019. The minutes may help forecasters model ECB’s upcoming decisions. Additionally, The German Consumer Prices index will be announced next week and it is expected to stay at 2.1% in June as the same as the previous number. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the euro. The EURUSD pair found buyers from the 1607 daily support level and then closed last week above 1.1720. As long as the price stays above 1.1720 on a four hourly basis, the upward movement may continue and we will face 1.1812 as a daily resistance level. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.1720, the next support level can be found at 1.1607 again. Support: 1.1720 – 1.1607 - 1.1531 Resistance: 1.1812 – 1.1884 - 1.1968 GBP/USD: The Sterling gained more value versus the greenback and the GBPUSD pair closed last week above the daily level of 1.3241. Looking ahead, we will focus on Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance next week in the UK. As long as the price sustains above 1.3241 on a daily basis, the rise may gain more momentum. At this point, we will see resistance levels at 1.3338 and 1.3447. Although, if the price falls below 1.3241, the next support level is holding at 1.3152. Support: 1.3241 – 1.3152 - 1.3050 Resistance: 1.3338 – 1.3447 - 1.3536 USD/JPY: The USDJPY bullish action was limited last week. As long as the price trades below 110.86 on a four hourly basis, we might see a downward movement and we will follow 109.90 and 109.35 as support levels. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 110.86, the next daily resistance level will be at 111.66 Support: 109.90 – 109.35 - 108.78 Resistance : 110.86 – 111.66 – 111.46 GOLD: The GOLD price showed an upward reaction last week. However, watch out for the main resistance level of 1256. In order for the bullish action to continue, it needs to rise and stay above 1256 on a four hourly basis. At this point, we will see resistance levels in 1272 and 1276. On the other hand, if the price shows a downward movement below 1256, the support levels can be found at 1249 and 1243 Support: 1249 – 1243 - 1235 Resistance: 1256 – 1272 - 1276

09 Jul 18 (Mon)

11:51 am


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