Weekly Technical Analysis For July 2nd to 6th, 2018

Keep Your Eye On US NFP and FOMC Minutes EUR/USD: The first half of 2018 is behind us now.  The US Dollar rally came under threat after US GDP slowed to a 2.0% annual rate in the first quarter, missing estimate of 2.2%. Also, Core PCE reading came out at 2.3% as the same as previous number. The EURUSD pair re-tested the 1.1531 key support level, but could not break down it. The FOMC meeting notes and US Jobs Report will be important releases of next week. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected in their June meeting. Also, Fed signaled two more hikes in 2018. The FOMC meeting Minutes may give a more detailed about Fed Outlook. If we look at US Jobs Report’s forecast; US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to 200K jobs created after rising 223K the previous month. Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 3.8% which is the lowest level for 18 years. Average hourly earnings will be another release to be followed closely at the same time and are expected to come out at 0.3%. A higher than expected reading will support the greenback. The EURUSD pair found buyers from the 1.1531 key support level and then moved up. In order for the bullish action to continue, it needs to rise and stay above 1.1720 on a four hourly basis. At this point, the next daily resistance level can be found at 1.1812. Otherwise, we will face 1.1607 as a daily support level again. Support: 1.1660 - 1.1607 - 1.1531 Resistance: 1.1720 – 1.1812 – 1.1884 GBP/USD: The GBPUSD pair moved off seven-month lows and hit to the 1.3050 daily support level. UK annual GDP growth met expectations at 1.2% last Friday. Looking ahead, we will focus on manufacturing and service PMI data in the UK. The GBPUSD pair jumped from 1.3050 and then showed upward movement last Friday. In order for the upward movement to continue, it needs to go beyond 1.3241 and stay above that level on a daily basis. In this point, the next resistance level will be at 1.3338. Otherwise, the rise may be limited and we will see support levels at 1.3152 and 1.3050. Support: 1.3152 - 1.3050 - 1.2961 Resistance: 1.3241 – 1.3338 –1.3447 USD/JPY: The Safe-haven currency yen lost value versus the greenback in the past week. The USDJPY pair found buyers 109.35 and then reached to the 110.86 resistance level. In order for the rise to gain more momentum, it needs to rise and stay above 110.86 on a four hourly basis. At this point, we will see 111.66 as the next resistance level. On the other that, if the price stays below 110.86, we will face support levels at 109.90 and 109.35 again. Support: 109.90 - 109.35 – 108.78 Resistance: 110.86 - 111.66 - 112.46 GOLD: The GOLD Price hit fresh six-month lows last week. As long as the price trades below 1256, on a four-hour basis, the bearish action is most likely dominate and we will see support levels at 1249 and 1243. On the other hand, if the price moves up above 1256, the next resistance level can be found at 1265. Support: 1249 - 1243 - 1235 Resistance: 1256 -1265 - 1272

09 Jul 18 (Mon)

11:48 am


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