Weekly Technical Analysis For April 9th to 13th, 2018

 
EUR/USD: US Dollar gave back gains after US Jobs Report was released last Friday. The US Non-Farm Payrolls printed at 103K in March, missing expectations of 193K, it is fewest jobs since hurricanes in September. The jobless rate held steady at 4.1%, missing expectations for a further drop to 4.0%. The only good news from the jobs report is that; Average hourly earnings advanced 0.3% month-on-month in March, matching forecasts. That was higher than the 0.1% advance seen a month earlier.
 
Looking ahead, we will focus on US CPI Inflation and the FOMC meeting notes on Wednesday. In February, The US CPI rose to an annualized 2.2%, which is higher than the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The March's customer price index is expected to come out at 2.4%. On the other hand, Core CPI inflation is expected to rise to 2.1% from 1.8% a month earlier. Acceleration in headline inflation may prompt investors to price further rate hikes from Fed.
 
The FOMC meeting notes from the US will be a significant release for the FX market and this should give a more detailed explanation of March meeting. Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 25 basis points and raised target interest rate to 1.75 - 1.50 percent in March, as expected. The Fed projected for two more rate hikes for 2018 and they said the inflation to move up in coming months, stabilize around 2%.
 
Moreover; The ECB March meeting minutes and German CPI figures will be followed closely by the investors in the upcoming week.
 
The EURUSD pair found buyers from the 1.2232 key support level after NFP. In this week, we will focus on the daily resistance level of 1.2314. As long as the price sustains below that level on a daily basis, the rise may be limited. In this case, we will see 1.2232 and 1.2171 as support levels again. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.2314, the next resistance level can be found at 1.2384.
 
Support: 1.2232 – 1.2171 - 1.2109
 
Resistance 1.2314 - 1.2384 – 1.2465
 
 
GBP/USD: UK Manufacturing Production for February will be published on Wednesday and it is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.1% in the preceding month. Any strengthening in the index amid Brexit concerns would be considered positive for the British economy.
 
The GBPUSD pair jumped up from the 1.3999 support level. In order for the rise to continue, it needs to move up above the 1.4130 resistance level. At this point, we will face 1.4270 as the next resistance level. Otherwise, we will see again support level at 1.3999.
 
Support: 1.3999 – 1.3880 – 1.3745
 
Resistance: 1.4130 - 1.4277 – 1.4408
 
 
USD/JPY: The USDJPY closed last week above the daily support level of 106.46. As long as the price stays above 106.46, on a daily basis, the US Dollar may gain more value versus the Yen and we will face resistance at 107.65. On the other hand, if the price falls below 106.46, the next support level will be at 105.04
 
Support: 106.46 – 105.04 - 103.76
 
Resistance : 107.65 – 108.78 - 106.35
 
 
GOLD: The GOLD price moved up from the 1319 support level after US Jobs Report and then the yellow metal price closed last week above 1330. As long as the price stays above 1330 on a four hourly basis, the rise may continue and the resistance level can be found at 1352. Although, if the price drops below 1330, the next support level is holding at 1319.
 
Support: : 1330 – 1319 – 1307
 
Resistance: 1352 - 1367
 
 
CRUDE OIL: The Crude Oil Price has dropped for two weeks and hit the support level of 61.89. In order for the bearish action to continue, it needs to break down to 61.89. At this point, the next daily support level will be at 61.22. Otherwise, we will watch resistance levels at 62.72 and 63.54.
 
Support: 61.89 - 61.22 - 60.55
 
Resistance: 62.72 - 63.54 - 64.38

09 Jul 18 (Mon)

09:07 am


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