Weekly Technical Analysis For March 12th to 16th, 2018

EUR/USD: The ECB Monetary Policy meeting is behind us now. The ECB keeps interest rates unchanged at 0% last Thursday, as expected. However, the EURUSD pair showed a bearish action after the ECB press conference. The Draghi had more dovish tone than the ECB statement.
 
US Jobs Report came out last Friday with stronger jobs number but weaker wage growth. The Nonfarm payrolls rose by 313K in February. The data beat the consensus estimate for the creation of 313K jobs and was higher than 235K that the ADP report indicated on Wednesday. January reading of NFP was revised to 239K from the initial 200K registered initially. The jobless rate, however, held steady at 4.1%, missing expectations for a further drop to 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings advanced 0.1% month-on-month in February, compared to forecast for a 0.2% gain.
 
Looking ahead; we will focus on Inflation data from US and Eurozone this week.
 
The US CPI is expected to come out 0.2% m/m and y/y inflation is expected to rise to 2.2% in February from 2.1% a month ago. On the other hand, Core inflation is expected to stay at 1.8%. Additionally, Retail sales growth will be another important data from the US. It is expected to rise to 0.3% m/m from -0.3% a fall of the previous month growth. Acceleration in headline inflation and retail sales may prompt investors to price further rate hikes from Fed hence push DXY and bond yields higher.
 
Moreover, Eurozone CPI will be published on Friday. The Final CPI y/y inflation for February is expected to stay at 1.2%. A worse than expected reading should be taken as negative for the Euro.
 
The EURUSD pair closed last week just below the main level of 1.2314. As long as the currency stays below 1.2314, on a daily basis, the greenback may gain more value versus the euro. In this case, we will watch support levels at 1.2232 and 1.2171. Although, If the price goes beyond 1.2314, the next resistance level can be found 1.2384.
 
Support: 1.2232 – 1.2171 - 1.2109
 
Resistance 1.2314 -1.2384 – 1.2465
 
GBP/USD: The GBPUSD pair closed last week below the 1.3880 daily level. As long as the pair trades below that level, on a daily basis, we will follow 1.3745 and 1.3651 as support levels. On the other hand, If the pair rises above 1.3880, the next resistance level will be at 1.3999.
 
Support:  1.3745 – 1.3651 – 1.3536
 
Resistance: 1.3880 – 1.3999 – 1.4130
 
USD/JPY: The USDJPY pair showed an upward movement and moved up above the major level of 106.46. As long as the price sustains above 106.46, on a daily basis, the rise may continue and we will face resistance level at 107.65. On the other hand, if the price falls below 106.46, the next support level will stand at 105.04
 
Support:  106.46 – 105.04 - 103.76
 
Resistance : 107.65 – 108.78 – 109.35
GOLD: The Gold price showed an upward reaction from the 1319 key support level. In the event that the yellow metal continues to rise, we will face 1330 as a resistance level. Moreover, in order for the rise continue, it needs to go beyond 1330. Otherwise, If the price drops below 1319, the next daily support level can be found at 1307.
 
Support: 1319 - 1307 – 1291
 
Resistance: 1330 - 1352 - 1367
 
 
CRUDE OIL: The Crude Oil price rose significantly last Friday and the price closed last week above 61.89. As long as the price sustains above 61.89, on four hourly bases, we will see 62.72 and 63.54 as resistance levels. On the other hand, if the price falls below 61.89, we will face 61.22 as a next daily support level.
 
Support:  61.89 - 61.22 – 60.55
 
Resistance: 62.72 - 63.54 - 64.38

09 Jul 18 (Mon)

08:10 am


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