Weekly Technical Analysis For February 19th to 23th, 2018

EURUSD: The US Dollar extended losses last week, hitting a three-year low against a basket of major currencies. US January headline CPI rises higher than expected. The Consumer Price index rose 2.1% for the 12 months ending January, the same increase as for the 12 months ending December. However, it did not support greenback. US Dollar tumbled after January’s Inflation Report.
 
Looking ahead, we will focus on the FOMC meeting notes from the US on Wednesday. It is so significant release for the FX market and this should give a more detailed explanation of January meeting. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 1.25% - 1.50% at the last meeting. The Fed said the inflation remained low but is expected to move up in the coming months.
 
Additionally, The Eurozone CPI inflation will be announced on Friday and it is expected to decline -0.9% in January which will carry y/y inflation to 1.3% as the same as a month ago. On the other hand, Core inflation is expected to rise to 1.0% from 0.9% a month earlier. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the single currency.
 
The EURUSD pair reached it is a three-year highest level and then showed a profit taking action on Friday. The price closed last week above the main support level of 1.2384.  As long as the price stays above 1.2384, on a four hourly basis, The euro may gain more value versus the greenback and we will face 1.2465 and 1.2521 as resistance levels. On the other hand, if the pair drops below 1.2384, the next daily support level can be found at 1.2314.
 
Support: : 1.2384 - 1.3114 - 1.2232
 
Resistance 1.2465 - 1.2521
 
GBPUSD: In the UK, traders will focus on December's Unemployment Rate and GDP Growth for the fourth quarter in the upcoming week. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay to 4.3% as the same as the previous reading.
 
No change from previously announced 0.5% q/q is expected for UK GDP growth by the market and it stands for 1.5%, as the same as the previous reading. A Better than the previous realization in Unemployment Rate and GDP growth would be considered positive for UK economy which is expected to get hurt by the Brexit process.
 
The GBPUSD pair closed above the 1.3999 key support level. As long as the pair stays above 1.3999, on four hourly bases, we might see upward movement and we will follow the resistance level at 1.4320 again. On the other hand, if the price falls below 1.3999, the next support level will stand at 1.3880.
 
Support: 1.3999 – 1.3880 – 1.3745
 
Resistance: 1.4130 – 1.4277 – 1.4408
 
 
USDJPY: Japan National CPI inflation will be published on Friday. The consensus estimate for core inflation in January is a ease to 0.8%, from 0.9% y/y while any pick up in headline inflation from 0.8% will support the Yen.
 
The USDJPY pair has dropped for one and a half month. As long as the price trades below the major level of 106.46, on a daily basis, the selling pressure may continue. At this point, we will follow 105.04 and 103.76, as support levels. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 106.46, the next resistance level will be at 107.65.
 
Support: 105.04 – 103.76 – 102.62
 
Resistance : 106.46 – 107.65 – 108.78
 
 
GOLD: The Gold price has extended gainings last week. In order for the rise to continue, it needs to go beyond 1352 and sustain above that level, on a four hourly basis. In this case, the next resistance level will be at 1367. On the other hand, If yellow metal stays below 1352, we will follow daily support level at 1330
 
Support: 1330 – 1319 - 1307
 
Resistance: 1352 – 1367
 
 
CRUDE OIL: The Crude Oil price found buyers from the key support level of 58.28 and then moved up to 61.89 last week. As long as the price stays above 61.22 on a daily basis, the upward movement may continue. In this case, we will follow 61.89 and 62.72 as resistance levels. Although, if the price falls below 61.89, the next support level will be at 60.55.
 
Support: 61.22 – 60.55 – 59.29
 
Resistance: 61.89 – 62.72 – 63.54

09 Jul 18 (Mon)

07:53 am


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