EURUSD: There was no exciting news or data from the US dollar last week. The Greenback only showed a reaction to US tax-reform negotiation.
US Tax reform uncertainty continues. US Senate Republicans unveiled a plan last week which would reduce the corporate tax rate to 20% from 35% and make other significant changes to the individual tax system. However, sentiment on the US Dollar dropped as Senate Republican leaders said they were considering postponing the implementation of the major corporate tax cut until 2019. Meanwhile, a House tax reform bill, which differs from the Senate version, would be expected to take effect next year.
In the upcoming week, CPI Inflation Numbers from Eurozone and US will be significant for investors
As inflation is one of the two pillars of Fed’s dual mandate, the market will seek a hint out of next Fed moves. Market consensus for the data to be released on Wednesday and it is expected to come out 0.1% m/m and y/y inflation is expected to ease to 2.0% in October from 2.2% a month ago. Core inflation, on the other hand, is expected to remain stable to 1.7% from a month earlier. Acceleration in headline inflation may prompt investors to price further rate hikes from Fed hence push DXY and bond yields higher. Conversely, a worse than expected realization would soothe market concerns and support EM economies.
Eurozone CPI inflation is expected to be 0.1% in October which will carry y/y inflation to 1.4% as the same as a month ago. Also, the third quarter of Eurozone GDP growth will be announced on Tuesday. Market consensus is 0.6% q-o-q growth in the third quarter, flat according to the same period of last year. This would lead to an annual realization of 2.5%. A better than expected realization may support EURUSD.
Additionally, the ECB chief Draghi, the Fed Chair Yellen, BoE head Carney and BoJ Governor Kuroda will form an all-star panel on Tuesday at an ECB-hosted conference in Frankfurt.
The Euro gained move value versus the greenback and closed last week just above the 1.1660 support level. In the event that the upward movement continues above 1.1660. we will watch strong resistance level at 1.1720. However, in order for the bullish action gain more momentum, it needs to rise and stay above 1.1720. Otherwise, the bulls may be limited. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.1660, the daily support level will be at 1.1607.
Support: 1.1660 - 1.1607 – 1.1570
Resistance: 1.1720 – 1.1768 - 1.1812
GBPUSD: The UK October’s CPI data will be released on Tuesday. The Annual CPI is expected to reach a five-year high of 3.1% from 3.0% a month earlier. Also, traders will focus on monthly unemployment and retail sales data for further indications on the continued effect that the Brexit decision is having on the economy.
The GPBUSD pair found buyers from the 1.3050 key support level and moved up towards the main daily resistance level of 1.3241 last week. However, as long as the price stays below 1.3241 on a daily basis, the upward movement may be limited. At this point, we will follow 1.3152 and 1.3103 as support levels, On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.3241, the next resistance level will be at 1.3305.
Support: 1.3152 – 1.3103 – 1.3050
Resistance: 1.3199 - 1.3241 – 1.3305
USDJPY: The USDJPY pair found sellers from the major resistance level of 114.63 in the beginning of last week and showed bearish action. As long as the price stays below that level on a four-hourly basis, the selling pressure may continue and support levels can be found at 112.94 and 112.46. On the other hand, if the price rises above 113.63, the next resistance level will be at 114.11.
Support: 112.94 – 112.46 – 112.08
Resistance : 113.63 – 114.11 - 114.63
GOLD: The Gold price has been uncertain. The price moved up above the 1283 key level but it could not remain and gave up all gainings before the market closed. As long as the precious metal stays below the 1276 daily level, the support levels will stand at 1272 and 1265. On the other hand, if the price rises above 1276, we will face again resistance level at 1283.
Support: 1272 – 1265 - 1256
Resistance: 1276 - 1283 – 1291
06 Jul 18 (Fri)