EURUSD: We will focus on ECB Monetary Policy Decision this week. No rate change is expected from the ECB, however, Governor Draghi’s statements about the fate of quantitative easing in Eurozone will be quite important for EURUSD. We might hear what the ECB plans to do with their stimulus program beyond the current December expiration The consensus forecast is that it will halve its asset-purchase program to €30 billion per month from €60 billion and extend it by nine months from January. If the ECB give us surprising details about their stimulus program, the market may show significant price action behind the single currency.
Moreover, US GDP Growth for the third quarter of 2017 will be released this Friday. It is expected to be 2.6%, lower than 3.1% registered in the previous number. A stronger than expected outcome would support dollar index and lead to further rise in US bond yields.
The EURUSD pair showed pullbacks and closed last week below the main resistance level of 1.1812. As long as the price stays below 1.1812, on a daily basis, the dollar may gain more value against the Euro and we will follow support levels at 1.1769 and 1.1720. On the other hand, if the pair rises above 1.1812, the next resistance level will be at 1.1884.
Support: 1.1768 – 1.1720 - 1.1660
Resistance: 1.1812 - 1.1884 – 1.1968
GBPUSD: In UK, GDP growth for the third quarter will be the main release of the week. No change from previously announced 0.3% q/q is expected by the market and it stands for 1.4%, slightly lower than 1.5% registered in the previous number. A negative surprise would weigh on GBP/USD
The GBPUSD pair closed last week just below the 1.3199 resistance level. In the event that the price rises above 1.3199, the next daily resistance level will be at 1.3241. However, As long as the price trades below 1.3241, the bullish action may be limited. On the other hand, If the price shows a downward movement, we will follow 1.3152 and 1.3103 as support levels.
Support: 1.3152 - 1.3103 – 1.3050
Resistance: 1.3199 – 1.3241 – 1.3305
USDJPY: The USDJPY pair found buyers from the major support level of 111.66 and it closed last week just below 113.63. In order for the bullish action to gain more momentum, it needs to rise and stay above 113.63, on a four-hourly basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be at 114.11. Otherwise, if the price a downward movement below 113.63, we will watch support levels at 112.94 and 112.46
Support: 112.94 – 112.46 - 112.08
Resistance : 113.63 – 114.11 – 114.63
GOLD: The Gold price found sellers from the key resistance level of 1291 and then dropped below 1283. In the event that the bearish action continues below 1283, we will face 1276 as a daily support level. However, as long as the price sustains above 1276, the downward movement may be limited. On the other hand, if the price rises above 1283, the next resistance level will be at 1291 again.
Support: 1276 – 1272 – 1265
Resistance: 1283 – 1291 – 1307
CRUDE OIL: The Price of Crude Oil closed last week above the 51.75 key support level. As long as the price stays above 51.75, on a four-hourly basis, the bullish action may gain momentum. Although, if the price drops below 51.75, the next key support level will be at 50.30.
Support: 51.75 - 50.30 -49.33
06 Jul 18 (Fri)
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