Weekly Technical Analysis For October 16th to 20th, 2017

EUR/USD: The US dollar dropped, versus other major currencies, after the release of downbeat U.S. data. US CPI inflation rose less than expected in September, both on a monthly and annual basis. US retail sales also increased less than the previous month. It is important to remember that the September Non-Farm Payrolls surprised the market with a 33K job loss in the US economy, a result which was affected by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. These two pillars of the Fed’s dual mandate dampened optimism concerning the strength of the economy. However, there is no change in view for a likely hike by year-end from the Fed officials thus far.

In the upcoming week, Eurozone inflation will be announced on Tuesday. CPI inflation is expected to be 0.4% in September. whereas (YoY) inflation is expected to stay at 1.5%. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the single currency.

The EURUSD pair closed last week above the major support level of 1.1812. As long as the price stays above 1.1812, on a daily basis, the bearish action may be limited. At this point, we will follow 1.1884 and 1.1968 as resistance levels. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.1812, the next support level will be at 1.1768.

Support:   1.1812 - 1.1768 –  1.1720

Resistance: 1.1884 – 1.1968 – 1.2052

GBP/USD: The EU said to consider granting The UK a 2-year transition, which lead to a jump in the Sterling last week. This EU response is what May asked for, and reduces the chances of a hard exit.

The UK CPI Inflation and Unemployment rate will be announced this week. UK CPI is expected to rise to 3.0% (yoy) in September from 2.9% a month ago. The U.K. Unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.6% compared to a month ago. The market might show us some fluctuation in the GBPUSD pair after the inflation report and unemployment rate are published in the upcoming week.

The GBPUSD pair showed an upward movement to the 1.3305 key resistance level. In order for the bullish action to gain more momentum it needs to rise and remain above 1.3305 on a four-hourly basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be at 1.3369. Although, if the price shows a downward movement we will watch 1.3241 as a daily support level again. However, As long as the price stays above 1.3241 on a daily basis the pullbacks may be limited.

Support: 1.3241 - 1.3199 - 1.3152

Resistance: 1.3305 – 1.3370 – 1.3433

USD/JPY: The USDJPY pair dropped the 111.66 main support level last Friday. If the price is able to break down 111.66 and stays below that level on a daily basis, the bearish action may continue and next support levels will be at 111.28 and 110.86. On the other hand, if the price shows an upward movement above 111.66. we will face 112.08 and 112.46 as resistance levels.

Support: 111.66 – 111.28 – 110.86

Resistance: 112.08 – 112.46 - 112.94

GOLD: The Gold price extended gainings last week. In the event that the upward movement continues, we will face 1307 as a daily resistance level. Moreover, in order for the upward movement to gain more momentum, it needs to rise and remain above 1307 on a daily basis. Otherwise, if the price shows a downward movement, we will watch 1291 and 1283 as support levels.

Support: 1291 - 1283 – 1276

Resistance: 1307

CRUDE OIL: The price of Crude Oil moved up and closed last week below the 51.75 key resistance level. In order for the bullish action to gain more momentum, it needs to rise and stay above 51.75 on a four-hourly basis. Although, if the price shows a downward movement below 51.75, we will watch 50.30 and 49.33 as support levels.

Support: 50.30 – 49.33 – 48.48

Resistance.  51.75

06 Jul 18 (Fri)

01:19 pm


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