The US Non-Farm Payrolls; What To Expect

The US Non-Farm Payrolls; What To Expect

All eyes will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls today! The US Jobs Report will be released at 12:30 p.m. (GMT).

Why Is This Important?

The Non-Farm Payrolls track the change in the number of people employed by the US in manufacturing, construction and goods companies. It does not include farming industry employment. The US Jobs Report is so important for the upcoming Fed decisions.

Financial markets remained worried as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak. U.S President Donald Trump has warned Americans to brace for a "rough two weeks” 

Investors rushed to the security of the world's most liquid currency as the coronavirus pandemic caused massive disruptions to global trade. Safe Havens; Yen Gold and US Dollar still strong.

The number of Americans applying for initial unemployment benefits surged to a new record 6.65 million last week

Moreover, the U.S. private sector shed 27,000 jobs in March, according to a report by payrolls processor ADP, before the worst of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. labor market was seen. The Corona Virus outbreak is on getting worse.

March's US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to drop -100K after rising 273K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 3.9% from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.2% which is lower than the previous month's number of 0.3%. 

In addition to US Jobs Report, focus on US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The index is based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease to 44.0 from the previous month's reading of 57.3. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: We are closely watching the daily support level of 1.0806 in the EURUSD pair. If the price stays above 1.0806 on a daily basis, the downward movement may pause and we will follow 1.0876 as a key resistance level again. On the downside, if the pair breaks down below 1.0806, we will see 1.0728 as the next support level.
 
Support: 1.0806 - 1.0728 - 1.0623

Resistance: 1.0876 - 1.0930 - 1.0965

GBP/USD: Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls, the GBPUSD pair is currently trading above the daily support level of 1.2364. As long as the price stays above 1.2364 on a daily basis, the rise may gain more momentum and we will watch 1.2428 and 1.2502 as resistance levels. On the downside, If the price drops below 1.2364, the support levels can be seen at 1.2286 and 1.2205. 

Support: 1.2364 - 1.2286 - 1.2205

Resistance: 1.2428 - 1.2502 - 1.2572

USD/JPY: Focus on the 107.82 main support level in the USDJPY pair. As long as the pair stays above 107.82, on a daily basis, the resistance level can be found at 108.14 and 108.52. In contrast, if the price drops below 107.82, the next support level will be at 107.52.
 
Support : 107.82 - 107.52 - 107.22

Resistance: 108.14 - 108.52 - 108.79

GOLD: The GOLD price found sellers from the 1612 main resistance level and then showed a downward movement in the Asian Trading Session. Ahead of the US Jobs Report, If the yellow metal price stays above 1606 on a four hourly basis, we will follow the resistance levels at 1612 and 1626. Otherwise, if the price drops below 1606, we will face 1590 as the daily support level.

Support: 1606 - 1590 - 1584

Resistance: 1612 - 1626 - 1650

03 Apr 20 (Fri)

07:12 am



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