Will Non-Farm Payrolls Support the US Dollar Today?

Will Non-Farm Payrolls Support the US Dollar Today?

Watch out for the US Non-Farm Payrolls today. It will be announced at 13:30 p.m. (GMT).

Why Is This Important?

The Non-Farm Payrolls track the change in the number of people employed by the US in manufacturing, construction and goods companies. It does not include farming industry employment. It is a significant determinant of a Fed rate hike in 2019.

Last Wednesday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came out and it grew by 183K in February, a sharp decline from the upwardly revised 300K in January, missing economists' forecasts of 189.K

US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to see 181K jobs created after rising 304 K the previous month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 3.9% from 4.0%. Average hourly earnings will also be significant and are expected to be 0.3% higher than the previous month's number of 0.1%. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive for the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: The EURUSD pair hit the lowest level since June 2017 after dovish signals from the European Central Bank. The ECB pushed back the timing of its first post-crisis interest rate hike to 2020, cut its economic forecasts and launched a new round of cheap bank loans.

Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls, the EURUSD pair is now trading below the 1.1218 daily level. As long as the pair stays below 1.1218 on a daily basis, the selling pressure may continue and the daily support level can be found at 1.1103. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.1218, we will see 1.1285 as the next resistance level.

Support:  1.1103 - 1.0980 - 1.0837

Resistance: 1.1218 - 1.1285 - 1.1355

GBP/USD: The GBPUSD pair found sellers from the 1.3152 resistance level yesterday and moved down. In the event that the downward movement continues, we will see 1.3055 and 1.2994 as support levels. On the other hand, if the price moves up above 1.3152, the next resistance level will be at 1.3217.

Support: 1.3055  -  1.2994 - 1.2931

Resistance: 1.3152 - 1.3217 - 1.3291

USD/JPY: The USDJPY pair showed a downward movement and dropped below the daily level of 111.18. As long as the pair stays below 111.18 on a daily basis, the fall may continue, the key support level can be seen at 110.35. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 111.18, the next resistance level is holding at 111.85

Support: 110.35 - 109.57 - 108.95

Resistance: 111.18 - 111.85 - 112.36 

GOLD: The Gold Price rose above the major level of 1291. As long as the price stay above 1291, on a daily basis, the upward movement may continue and we will see the resistance level at 1305. On the other hand, if the price moves down below 1291, the next support level will be seen in 1278. 

Support: 1291 - 1278 - 1266

Resistance: 1305 - 1316 - 1327

08 Mar 19 (Fri)

07:29 am



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