What Should We Expect From The US Non-Farm Payrolls?

What Should We Expect From The US Non-Farm Payrolls?

Keep your eye on the US Non-Farm Payrolls today! The US Jobs Report will be released at 12:30 p.m. (GMT).

Why Is This Important?

The Non-Farm Payrolls track the change in the number of people employed by the US in manufacturing, construction and goods companies. It does not include the farming industry employment. The US Jobs Report is an important determinant of a Fed rate hike in the upcoming decisions.

The US Central Bank raised interest rates last week for the third time this year and removed the reference in its post-meeting statement to monetary policy remaining "accommodative."

Additionally, the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the economy's outlook was "remarkably positive" and he believed it was on the cusp of a "historically rare" era of ultra-low unemployment and tame inflation.

Today, another strong US Jobs Report is expected by the market. If we look at Wednesday’s the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Number, printed at 230k, well above the 185k reading expected and at its highest level in 6 months. The upbeat US data indicating the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve will continue.

The US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to 185K jobs created after rising 201K the previous month. Unemployment Rate is expected to drop to 3.8% from 3.9%. Average hourly earnings will be another release to be followed closely at the same time and are expected to ease to 0.3% from 0.4%. An upbeat employment report will point to an improving US Economy and support the US Dollar.

Technical Analysis:

EUR/USD: Ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls Data, the EURUSD pair is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1531. As long as the price stays below 1.1531, on a four hourly basis, the bearish action may continue and we will face 1.1446 as a support level. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1.1531, the next daily resistance level can be found at 1.1607.

Support: 1.1446 – 1.1367 - 1.1262

Resistance: 1.1531 – 1.1607 - 1.1720

GBP/USD: The GBPUSD jumped up from the 1.2961 daily support level and showed an upward reaction yesterday. Watch out for the 1.3050 key resistance level.  As long as the price stays below 1.3050, on a four hourly basis, the rise may be limited. At this point, we will see the major support level of 1.2961 again. On the other hand, if the price rises above 1.3050, the next resistance level will be placed at 1.3152.

Support: 1.2961 – 1.2916 – 1.2873

Resistance: 1.3050 -  1.3152 - 1.3241

USD/JPY:  The US Dollar showed a taking profit action yesterday, after hit an 11-month high level versus the Yen. The USDJPY pair is trading above the key level of 113.63. As long as the currency stays above 113.63 on a four hourly basis, the upward movement may continue and we will see 114.63 as a daily resistance level. Although, if the pair drops below 113.63, the next support level is holding at 112.46.

Support: 113.63 – 112.46 - 111.66

Resistance: 114.63 - 115.61 - 116.89

GOLD: The Gold price is still under selling pressure and the yellow metal’s price is now trading below the 1199 major level. As long as the yellow metal price stays below 1199, on a four hourly basis, the fall may continue and we will follow the support level at 1188. On the other hand, if the price goes beyond 1199, the next daily resistance level will in 1207.

Support: 1188 - 1177 - 1166

Resistance: 1199 – 1207 – 1215

05 Oct 18 (Fri)

07:31 am



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