Keep Your Eye On US Jobs Report
The most important event will be US Non-Farm Payrolls today. It will be announced at 13:30 p.m. (GMT) and the Jobs Report is a significant determinant of Fed rate hike in December 12-13 meeting. The greenback appreciated against a basket of major currencies on this week, thanks to a renewed sense of optimism on US tax reforms. Other bullish factors that boosted the dollar higher included the eased concerns over a possible government shut-down in the US, for now, the approval for the Fed Chair nominee Powel and the aggressively progressed negotiations between the House and the Senate. Additionally, next week brings the Fed with what is widely expected to be the bank third hike this year. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was released last Wednesday and it rose to 190K from 185K a month ago. November US Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to 200K jobs created after rising 261K the previous month. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain flat at 4.1% compared to a month ago. Average hourly earnings will be another release to be followed closely at the same time and are expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.0% a previous month. A rate hike looks all but fully priced in for this month’s FOMC meeting. However, an upbeat employment report will point to an improving economy and support the case for higher interest rates in 2018. Technical Analysis; EURUSD: The EURUSD found sellers from the main resistance level of 1.1812 yesterday and it is moving down towards the 1.1720 key support level. Ahead of the US Job Reports, If the price breaks down and stays below 1.1720, on a four-hourly basis, the bearish action may gain more momentum. At this point, the next support level can be found at 1.1660. Otherwise, we might see an upward reaction and we will face 1.1769 and 1.1812 as resistance levels again. Support: 1.1720 – 1.1660 – 1.1607 Resistance: 1.1769 – 1.1812 – 1.1884 GOLD: The Gold price lost value significantly after breaking down below the 1272 key level this week and dropped to the 1243 daily support level. In order for the bearish action to continue next week, it needs the breakdown and closed the week below 1243. At this point, the next support level will be at 1235. Otherwise, the downward movement may be limited and we will face resistance levels at 1256 and 1265. Support: : 1243 - 1235 - 1230 Resistance: 1249 - 1256 – 1265 GBPUSD: The GBPUSD continues to slide despite news of Brexit deal, possible move to trade talks. The price is currently testing the 1.3485 daily resistance level. In order for the sterling to gain more value versus the greenback, it needs to rise and remains above 1.3485, on a daily basis. In this case, the next resistance level can be found at 1.3555.Otherwise, if the price stays below 1.3485, we will follow 1.3432 and 1.3370 as support levels Support: : 1.3432 - 1.3370 – 1.3305 Resistance: 1.3485 – 1.3555 – 1.3622 USDJPY: The USDJPY pair has been rising for two weeks. Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls, the price is moving towards the 113.63 key resistance level. In order for the bullish action continue, it needs to rise and stays above 113.63. At this point, the next resistance level will stand at 114.11. On the other hand, if the price shows a downward movement, we will watch again support level at 112.94 and 112.46 Support: 112.94 – 112.46 – 112.08 Resistance : 113.63 – 114.11 – 114.63
09 Jul 18 (Mon)
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