Will Non-Farm Payrolls Support the US Dollar Today?

Will Non-Farm Payrolls Support the US Dollar Today?

Will Non-Farm Payrolls Support the US Dollar Today?

 

We will view the Non-Farm Payrolls from the US today. It will be announced at 12:30 p.m. (GMT) and the Jobs Report is a significant determinant of Fed rate hike in September.

Investors are worried about geopolitical tensions between the United States and North Korea this week. US Dollar dropped, Safe-Havens including Dold and Yen jumped sharply after North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan. EUR/USD also climbed above 1.2070 for the first time since January 2015.

Afterwards, last Wednesday, the US GDP for second quarter 2017 beat estimates and came alongside an ADP employment data also beat economist’s expectations. The market showed us the profit taking action in EURUSD and GOLD.

From a fundamental perspective, the Fed has already done to raise rates two times this year. However, the probability of a Fed hike in September 2017 is below 40%.

Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to decline to 180k from 209k a month ago and Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings will be another release to be followed closely at the same time and are expected to ease to 0.2%, from 0.3 % a previous month. We have noted upward trend gained momentum last two months for the EUR/USD and GOLD. Any realization better than market consensus today may support US Dollar and US bond yields.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD: The EURUSD currency found buyers from the 1.1830 support level yesterday. In event that the price rises, we will face 1.1930 and 1.1975 as resistance levels. On the other hand, if the price shows a downward movement below 1.1880, we will follow again support levels at 1.1830 and 1.1812. However, as long as the price stays above 1.1812, on a daily basis, the profit taking action may be limited.

 

Support: 1. 1880 – 1.1830 – 1.1812

Resistance: 1.1930 – 1.1975 – 1.2020

GOLD: The Gold price showed a bullish action yesterday and it is now trading above the 1307 daily support level. As long as the price remains above 1307 on a daily basis, the bullish action is most likely dominate. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1307, the pullback may continue and the next support level will be at 1291.

Support: 1307 - 1291 - 1283

USD/JPY: The USDJPY pair dropped the key support level of 109.90 yesterday. As long as the price trades above 109.90, on a four-hourly basis, we will face again resistance levels at 110.15 and 110.61. On the other hand, if the price shows a downward movement below 109.90, the next daily support level will be at 109.35.

Support : 109.90 - 109.35 - 108.78

Resistance : 110.15 - 110.61 - 110.86

GBP/USD: The GBPUSD pair showed an upward movement yesterday. In order for the bullish action gain more momentum, it needs to remain above 1.2961 on a daily basis. At this point, the next resistance level will be at 1.3007. Otherwise, if the price trades below 1.1261, we will face 1.2873 and 1.2844 as support levels.

Support : 1.2873 - 1.2844 - 1.2812 Resistance : 1.2961 – 1.3007 – 1.3050

 

09 Jul 18 (Mon)

12:13 pm



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