04 August 2017 US Non-Farm Payrolls

04 August 2017 US Non-Farm Payrolls

We will view the Non-Farm Payrolls from the US today. It will be announced at 12:30 p.m. (GMT) and the Jobs Report is a significant determinant of Fed rate hike in September.

The Fed has already done to raise rates two times. The Fed declared one more rate hike this year. However, they are looking for job growth to accelerate, wages to rise and unemployment to either hold steady or improve.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was released last Wednesday. It was at 178K which is softer realization than expected in July.

Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to decline to 183k from 222k a month ago and Unemployment Rate is expected to come out at 4.3%, better than a month ago. Average hourly earnings will be another release to be followed closely at the same time and are expected to rise to 0.3%, from a previous month.

We have noted that July is generally a very good month for the EUR/USD and GOLD. While it may seem like the euro has moved up quite a bit already this month. Any realization better than market consensus today may support DXY and US bond yields.

Technical Analysis:

EURUSD: The EURUSD pair is still trading above the 1.1812 support level. In the event that the price stays above 1.1812. the bullish action may continue. However, in order for the profit taking action to start, it needs to break and remain below 1.1812. At this point, the support levels will be at 1.1768 and 1.1720.

Support: 1.1812 – 1.1768 – 1.1720

GOLD: The Gold price is trading below the key resistance level of 1272. In the event that the rise continues, we will face resistance levels 1272 and 1276. In order for the bullish action to gain more momentum, it needs to go beyond 1276 and remain above that level on a daily basis. Otherwise, If the price shows a downward movement, we will face again 1266 and 1255 as support levels.

Support: 1266 – 1256 – 1250 Resistance: 1272 – 1276 – 1283

GBPUSD: The BOE Governor Carney responded to questions from the press conference yesterday, After the press conference, the GBP/USD pair dropped significantly. If the price falls and remains below the key level of 1.3152, the bearish action may continue. At this point, we will face support levels at 1.3103 and 1.3050. On the other hand, if the price shows an upward movement above 1.3152, the resistance levels will be at 1.3199 and 1.3241.

Support: 1.3152 – 1.3103 – 1.3050 Resistance: 1.3199 – 1.3241

USD/JPY: Ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls data, the USDJPY currency is trading above the key support level of 109.90. If the price drops and remains below that level on a daily basis, the bearish action may gain momentum. At this point, the next support level will be at 109.35. On the other hand, if the price shows an upward movement, we will follow 110.86 as a resistance level.

Support: 109.90 – 109.35 – 108.78 Resistance: 110.86 – 111.66 – 112.46

AUD/USD: The AUDUSD pair reached the 0.7973 key resistance level. As long as the price stays below that level on a four-hourly basis, we think the Greenback may gain more value against the Australian dollar and we will watch 0.7885 as a support level. Although, if the price goes beyond 0.7973, the next resistance level will be at 0.8064.

Support: 0.7885 – 0.7818 Resistance 0.7973 – 0.8064

09 Jul 18 (Mon)

12:11 pm



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