U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Scenario Analysis
All eyes will be on Non-Farm Payrolls today. It will be announced at 12:30 p.m. (GMT) and the Jobs Report is significant determinant of upcoming decisions from the Fed regarding rates.
The Fed has already done its part with two rate hikes this year and a balance sheet reduction plan expected to kick off in the fourth quarter, but political risk in the US has impaired the dollar with uncertainty on major policies being introduced as promised after the presidential elections. Also, we faced the FOMC meeting minutes last Wednesday which viewed recent softness in inflation data having little bearing on trend and the Fed members divided over when to start balance sheet runoff.
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was released at 158k yesterday which is softer realization than expected in June.
The Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to 179k jobs create for June and it was at 138k a month ago. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain flat at 4.3% compared to a month ago. Average hourly earnings will be another release to be followed closely at the same time and is expected to rise 0.3% from 0.2% a previous month. Any realization better than market consensus today will support DXY and US bond yields
09 Jul 18 (Mon)
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