A Busy Week Ahead; US CPI Is In Focus

A Busy Week Ahead; US CPI Is In Focus

The Euro was under pressure last week by weak economic data and growing evidence of a slowdown in the Eurozone. The European Commission lowered its growth forecast for the Eurozone last Thursday, after notable reductions in estimates for all three of the largest economies in the region - Germany, France, and Italy. The EU now expects a growth of 1.3% in 2019, compared to its prior November projection of 1.9%, and a 1.6% expansion for 2020, compared to the previous forecast of 2.0%.

Looking ahead this week, the U.S.-China Trade Talks will be significant. A 90-day trade truce between the US and China will expire on March 1. If the deadline passes without a deal, the US President Trump has said he could follow through on his threat to increase tariffs on as much as $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Additionally, the Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales are in focus in the US.

One of the major indicators of economic conditions, US CPI Inflation, will be published on Wednesday. January’s Consumer Price Index is expected to come out at 1.5%, lower than a previous number of 1.9%. Also, Core CPI inflation is expected to ease to 2.1% from 2.2%.

Core Retail Sales excluding auto and gas are expected to ease to 0.0% m/m from 0.2% growth in the previous number. A lower than expected reading should be taken as negative for the greenback.

If we look at the Eurozone area, the Gross Domestic Product will be published on Thursday. The GDP is expected to come out at 0.2% q-o-q growth, the same as the previous number. This would lead to an annual realization of 1.2%. A better than expected realization may support the single currency.

11 Feb 19 (Mon)

06:20 am



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